POINT OF VIEW, GOALS AND DEVELOPMENT METHODS FROM NOW TO 2020 AND THE FOLLOWING YEARS Point of view -
Thorough development, bases on quick, effective and sustainable developing (including economic, social and environmental effectiveness; ensure the effectiveness in short term and long term) to achieve the goals of improving people's living standards.
-
Vinh phuc socio-economic development must be put in the general socio-economic development relationship of the whole nation, the Tonkin and Ha noi Capital.
-
Vinh Phuc socio-economic development must goes in a reasonable way of further industrialization from now to 2020, and step-by-step develop service sectors for a more effective and stable economic structure by 2020s. Industrialization goes along with urbanization in a controllable, ordered and sustainable way.
-
Develop in an open orientation and foreign integration with the basis of taking advantage of domestic market to increase self-capability, competitiveness of domestic economy in international market, even in domestic market.
-
Economic development goes along with social development; build up a democratic and civilized society. Rural areas, least developed regions should be focused on, decrease the gap of the living standards among residential areas; make sure all people have a convenient access to social facilities.
-
Combine economic development with national defence reinforcement, political protection, social order and security maintenance.
-
Economic development must be followed with environmental protection and sustainable development. It is for not only provincial area, but also for related neighboor provinces and cities with a vision to a green city in the late of 2020s and in the early of 2030s.
Social-economic development targets by 2020s General targets: -
By 2015, Vinh Phuc Province shall have possessed neccessary elements of an industrial province. By 2020, Vinh Phuc shall become an industrial province, a central area for industries, service, and tourism in the whole nation; improve people's living standards; environment is preserved; national defence and securities are reinforced; aims to become Vinh Phuc City by 2020s of the 21st century.
Specific targets:
a). Economic targets:
-
Annual average GDP growth rate (period 2011-2020) reaches 14-15%/year:
-
From 2011 to 2015: 14.0 to 15.0%
-
From 2016 to 2020: 14.0 to 14.5%
-
Creating a stronger shift in economic structure by encouraging quick development in industries, service, high-quality products, high-tech and high-productivity sectors. Economic structure in period 2011-2020 aims at an increase in service proportion, forming a sustainable economic structure that suits to the provincial potential.
-
Economic structure according to actual prices till 2015 is predicted to be 61-62% of industries and construction; 31-32% of service and 6.5-7% of agro-forestry and fishery. Until 2020, service proportion is predicted to be over 38%, agro-forestry and fishery of from 3 to 4%, industries and construction of from 58 to 60%.
Chart 10: Comparison of Vinh Phuc GDP with other provinces and cities (estimated figures of Plan by 2020)
Unit: %
Source: Development Strategy Institue
-
GDP per person (actual price) by 2015 reaches from $3,500 to $4,000, and reaches from $6,500 to $7,000 until 2020s.
-
Increase foreign trade, exports, strive to reach average export growth rate in period 2011-2020 of about 30%, by 2020s export value reaches $13.5 billion.
-
Total capital for social development in period 2011-2015 is about 140,000 to 145,000 billion VND, period 2016-2020 of about 280,000 to 300,000 billion VND.
-
Social targets:
-
Build up a stable and peaceful society where men are in the top priority and the critical element for development. Create a basic and complete transformation in education and training, to attach special importance to job training in order to meet the neccessary requirements for socio-economic development, increase trained labor force to 66% by 2015 and about 75% by 2020;
-
100% wards and communes meet National Standards for healthcare service;
-
Lower malnutrition rate of children under five to below 5%; decrease annual birthrate of about 0.15 per thousand; natural population growth rate of under 1%/year;
-
By 2020, there will be no poor household according to current national poor standard.
-
Environmental protection targets:
-
Completely resolve contaminated water sources, such as Dam Vac lake, Dam Dieu Lake, Phan river basin,...
-
Effluent treatment in industrial parks (meet environmental standards)
-
Complete clean water supply network for urban areas.
-
Quality of air: Completely resolve air pollution around factories, especially cement, steel and fish processing industries.
-
Quality of earth: Resolve polluted ground; collecting and processing household wastes and toxic wastes; classification is carried out at its own sources.
-
Increase forest cover ratio to 26.7%
-
Ratio of urban citizens who have access to clean water reaches 82.5% in 2015 and over 95% in 2020.
-
Ratio of rural residentials who have access to clean water reaches 100% in 2015.
-
National defence and sercurities targets:
Maintain social sercurities and national defence, minimum social evil and assure sustainable environment in urban and rural areas, setting a basement for stability and socio-economic development.
Plans for development Foundations of building up plans for development -
The capability of global and national economic recovery, also provincial ability after the global crisis.
-
The capability of Vinh Phuc economic recovery and development in period from now to 2020.
-
Exploit inner potential (natural resources, labor force, capital, infrastructure...) of the province, and maintain sustainable development.
-
Place Vinh Phuc development in a comprehensive partnerships in the whole nation (especially the Norther of Vietnam Key economic region, Northwest midland and mountain regions in the Northern) and partnership in Kunming Corridor (China – Ha noi- Hai Phong), taking advantage of resource, outside elements in provicial socio-economic development.
-
Industrial developments, such as industrial zones, industrial cluster, manufacturing and the growth of service sectors, and tourism are the basis for all plans. Other sectors and fields are developed with an orientation to maintain sustainable development among those sectors, combined with particular elements of that sector.
-
Urbanization and rural development are important elements in plans for provincial socio-economic development.
-
A good relationship with Hanoi is one of the most important factors to the socio-economic development of Vinh Phuc province.
-
International economic relationship is analized thoroughly when calculating plans for development. Especially the competitiveness of Vinh Phuc province in attracting foreign invesment, and the competitiveness of agricultural, industrial and service products of Vinh Phuc during the implementation of international commitments (WTO, AFTA ...)
-
Labors and jobs are considered as an important factor in provincial socio-economic development.
Proposed plans:
In long-term expectation and a changing environment, socio-economic development of the whole nation and regions shall happen in different ways. The difference in these ways depends on how the financial recession (as an effect of the global financial crisis), mobillization level, and and exploitation of different resources. The three following plans are the basis for policies planning and managing that have been built up after revising different circumstances, which may happen to Vinh Phuc Province.
-
Take full advantage of resources, growth recovery, and focus on forming the foundation for industrialization and modernization.
The plan is substantiated based on financial recession termination, most effective exploitation of potential for development, especially men and land potential. There is a strong ability to attract development capital of this plan. Other manufacture and tourism sectors reach high development level, outside relationships and sectors in the province are effectively exploited, foreign and domestic capital are collected in a convenient way, local economic development and private sector develop fast. New enterprises are formed and operate effectively. The provincial economy is well organized and managed. There are more products, and the variety of product is high.
Socio-economic infrastructure progress is being pushed up. By 2020, infrastructure network is basically completed, setting the best conditions for investment attraction in the following phases, promoting the urbanization (sustainable orientation) in order to become Vinh Phuc City in the 2020s of the 21th century.
-
Maintain normal growth rate.
This plan aims to maintain manufacturing in a normal growth rate. The biggest difference is still the slow speed of national economy recovery (the recovery speed is nearly similar compared to the late financial crisis in 1997). Service sector, especially commercial tourism shows development steps that are similar to the above plan. Agricultural sectors maintain in an advanced development. Foreign investment and domestic investment are lowered due to high competitions from other provinces and the common economic activities atmostphere of the whole nation. Scale of labor use is in a low level, unemployment rate is still high and time of labor use is short.
Socio-economic infrastructre is not fully completed, especially in rural areas.
-
Set sustainable development goals, establishing basic premise of industrialization and modernization.
The plan is attached with a quick economy recovery, and a fast development of export processing zones, forming of new industrial zones, and effectively investment attraction. Service sector is in a stable development, which meets the necessary requirements for economic development and highly contributes to the economic growth.
Labor issue and employment is under control.
Main infrastructure network is paid attention to, setting the most favourable conditions to attract investment and meet development needs in rural areas of the province.
Urbanization speed is in a high level with a fast development in rural areas in urbanization orientation, and is on its way to form Vinh Phuc City in the early of 2030s.
Estimated figures on economic development of the plans. Plan 1: Rapid growth
This is a growth plan in a very high speed. In order to reach this growth speed, the Provincial Government and the State Central must show great efforts (projects managed by the State Central related to the province is well performed) in favourable conditions of the whole nation in general and of Vinh Phuc in particular. Chart 15 show calculated figures of this plan.
Table 1: Estimated economic growth rate in Vinh Phuc by 2020
(Rapid growth plan)
No
|
Category
|
2005
|
2010
|
2015
|
2020
|
I
|
Gross Domestic Products
(billion Dong, constant 1994 price)
|
5617.7
|
12,837
|
26,010
|
63,992
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
1182.9
|
1,559
|
1,889
|
2,189
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
2903.6
|
7,410
|
16,265
|
43,600
|
3
|
Service
|
1531.1
|
3,868
|
7,856
|
18,203
|
II
|
GDP (billion Dong, Actual price)
|
8871.9
|
33,903
|
91,035
|
247,313
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
1725.6
|
5,054
|
6,025
|
6,381
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
4674.7
|
19,042
|
55,584
|
150,669
|
3
|
Service
|
2471.6
|
9,808
|
29,425
|
90,262
|
III
|
GDP structure (% actual price)
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
19.5
|
14.9
|
6.6
|
2.6
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
52.7
|
56.2
|
61.1
|
60.9
|
3
|
Service
|
27.9
|
28.9
|
32.3
|
36.5
|
IV
|
GDP growth (% constant 1994 price)
|
06-10
|
11-15
|
16-20
|
11-20
|
|
Total
|
17.4
|
15.78
|
19.78
|
17.73
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
5.6
|
3.95
|
3.0
|
3.47
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
20.0
|
17.64
|
21.8
|
19.70
|
3
|
Service
|
19.5
|
16.04
|
18.3
|
17.16
|
V
|
Capital (cumulative)
|
’06-10
|
’11-15
|
’16-20
|
’11-20
|
|
Current price (billion Dong)
|
46,145
|
160,000
|
370,000
|
530,000
|
VI
|
Average poppulation (thousand people)
|
987
|
1010.4
|
1130
|
1230
|
VII
|
GDP per capita (actual price)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Million Dong
|
8.990
|
33.6
|
80.6
|
200
|
|
USD
|
559
|
1,766
|
4,100
|
9,500
|
According to this plan, Vinh Phuc economy grows with an average speed of 15-16% in period of 2011-2015 and over 17% in period 2011-2020.
Plan 2: Slow growth
Normal growth rate plan is considered as the lower bound of the development. By this plan, Vinh Phuc economy grows in a similar speed to service sectors. Chart 16, showing scale, structure and GDP growth rate by normal growth rate plan (slow growth plan)
Table 2: Estimated economic growth rate in Vinh Phuc by 2020
(Slow growth plan)
No
|
Category
|
2005
|
2010
|
2015
|
2020
|
I
|
Gross Domestic Products
(billion Dong, constant 1994 price)
|
5,617.7
|
12,837
|
21,790
|
39,816
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
1,182.9
|
1,559
|
1,884
|
2,090
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
2,903.6
|
7,410
|
12,779
|
22,451
|
3
|
Service
|
1,531.1
|
3,868
|
7,127
|
15,274
|
II
|
Total of GDP ( Billion, actual price)
|
8,871.9
|
33,903
|
76,376
|
144,143
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
1,725.6
|
5,054
|
6,011
|
6,093
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
4,674.7
|
19,042
|
43,672
|
77,584
|
3
|
Service
|
2,471.6
|
9,808
|
26,693
|
60,466
|
III
|
Structure of GDP (% actual price)
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
19.5
|
14.9
|
7.9
|
4.2
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
52.7
|
56.2
|
57.2
|
53.8
|
3
|
Service
|
27.9
|
28.9
|
34.9
|
41.9
|
IV
|
GDP growth (%, constant price 1994)
|
06-10
|
11-15
|
16-20
|
11-20
|
|
Total
|
17.4
|
11.7
|
12.7
|
10.8
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
5.6
|
3.9
|
2.1
|
3.0
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
20.0
|
12.1
|
11.93
|
11.9
|
3
|
Service
|
19.5
|
13.8
|
16.47
|
15.1
|
V
|
Investment capital
|
06-10
|
11-15
|
16-20
|
11-20
|
|
Current prices
|
46,145
|
132,665
|
275,450
|
450,446
|
VI
|
Average population
|
987
|
1010,4
|
1,130
|
1,230
|
VII
|
GDP per capita ( actual price)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Million
|
8.990
|
33.6
|
67.6
|
118
|
|
USD
|
559
|
1,766
|
3,440
|
5,560
| Plan 3: Optional plan
Socio-economic growth estimated results are calculated in macro balance and are based on the examinations of all possible plans that may happen. In a favourable international climate (the global economy soon recovers), dosmestic and provincial climate show remarkable reforms, thus the economy might be able to reach rapid growth rate (upper bound of the development). In case the international and domestic economy slowly recover with little improvement, the economy might be able to reach a similar growth rate to slow growth plan (lower bound of the development)
Optional socio-economic development plan by 2020 is a practice and positive plan : setting sustainable development goals, establishing the basic premise of industrialization and modernization as a basis for settlement of socio-economic development in Vinh Phuc Province by 2020. The plan shows positives in a quick recovery and growth rate maintenance, approaches to rapid growth plan; the practice of the plan is recognized in setting sustainable development as the basis. According to this plan, Vinh Phuc shall perform a remarkable transformation over the general developments of the Nothern key economic zone with realizable requirements for resource mobilization.
Table 3: Estimated economic growth rate in Vinh Phuc by 2020
Optional plan
No
|
Category
|
2005
|
2010
|
2015
|
2020
|
I
|
Gross Domestic Products
(billion Dong, constant 1994 price)
|
5617.7
|
12,837
|
25,021
|
48,188
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
1182.9
|
1,559
|
1,808
|
2,096
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
2903.6
|
7,410
|
15,767
|
31,437
|
3
|
Service
|
1531.1
|
3,868
|
7,447
|
14,655
|
II
|
GDP (billion Dong, actual price)
|
8871.9
|
33,903
|
85,173
|
182,090
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
1725.6
|
5,054
|
5,755
|
6,754
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
4674.7
|
19,042
|
52,490
|
105,833
|
3
|
Service
|
2471.6
|
9,808
|
26,928
|
70,161
|
III
|
GDP structure (%, actual price)
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
19.45
|
14.9
|
6.8
|
3.7
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
52.69
|
56.2
|
61.6
|
57.9
|
3
|
Service
|
27.86
|
28.9
|
31.6
|
38.4
|
IV
|
GDP growth rate (%,constant 1994 price)
|
06-10
|
11-15
|
16-20
|
11-20
|
|
Total
|
17.4
|
14.2
|
14.0
|
14.1
|
1
|
Agro-forestry, fishery
|
5.6
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
2
|
Industry - Construction
|
20.0
|
16.3
|
14.8
|
15.55
|
3
|
Service
|
19.5
|
14.0
|
14.5
|
14.25
|
V
|
Investment Capital
|
’06-10
|
’11-15
|
’16-20
|
’11-20
|
|
Current price
|
46,145
|
142,275
|
289,245
|
477,664
|
VII
|
Average population (thousand people)
|
987
|
1,009.5
|
1,130
|
1,230
|
VIII
|
GDP per capita (actual price)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Million
|
8.990
|
33.6
|
75.4
|
148.6
|
|
US Dollar
|
567
|
1,766
|
3,848
|
7,022
|
By this plan, the average economy growth rate of Vinh Phuc in period 2011-2015 is 14-15% and period 2016-2020 is 14-14.5%; average growth rate of the whole period 2011-2020 is 14-15%
Investment needs of this plan (cumulative) in period 2011-2015 is from 142,000 to 145,000 billion Dong ; period 2016-2020 is from 280,000 to 300,000 billion Dong. Total cumulative capital for the whole period 2011-2020 is about 470,000-475,000 billion Dong. The Provincial Government should perform great efforts to complete this plan.
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