Sample of organizations participating in consolidated appeals
Table II: Summary of requirements (grouped by priority)
|
Consolidated Appeal for Haiti 2011 as of 15 November 2010 http://fts.unocha.org | |
Compiled by OCHA on the basis of information provided by appealing organizations. | |
Priority |
Requirements ($) |
HIGH |
840,558,647 |
MEDIUM |
66,402,559 |
Grand Total |
906,961,206 |
Consolidated Appeal for Haiti 2011 as of 15 November 2010 http://fts.unocha.org |
Compiled by OCHA on the basis of information provided by appealing organizations. |
Appealing Organization |
Requirements ($) |
ACAT |
429,705 |
ACF |
18,007,000 |
ACTED |
17,172,350 |
AHV |
3,540,818 |
AMECON 2000 |
1,057,580 |
American Institutes for Research |
255,065 |
AMI |
269,775 |
AN |
516,500 |
ARC |
7,957,534 |
ARI |
3,387,188 |
ASA |
2,174,866 |
ASB |
1,740,343 |
AVSI |
5,996,400 |
BRAC |
418,816 |
CARE USA |
11,719,212 |
Caritas Austria |
106,461 |
CECOSIDA |
255,000 |
CESVI |
1,450,000 |
COOPI |
2,677,175 |
CW |
14,923,786 |
Deep Springs International |
1,319,000 |
DWHH |
3,304,057 |
Entrepreneurs du Monde |
695,000 |
EPER Lausanne |
1,250,000 |
FAO |
27,660,000 |
FAU |
1,324,350 |
FESFORDH |
701,301 |
FH |
8,610,656 |
FHED-INC |
5,213,600 |
FIDEH |
720,000 |
Finnchurchaid |
1,920,000 |
Floresta |
2,004,989 |
France RC |
1,571,450 |
FTC |
2,689,863 |
GOAL |
174,120 |
GRUEEDH |
104,390 |
GVC |
3,160,000 |
Haiti Participative |
2,323,407 |
Heartland |
2,936,027 |
HelpAge International |
2,769,000 |
HI |
672,250 |
HU |
1,728,927 |
HWA |
986,000 |
IEDA Relief |
6,058,043 |
ILO |
8,056,000 |
IMAT |
477,000 |
Inter Aide |
33,300 |
International Action |
1,000,000 |
Internews |
193,282 |
IOM |
141,772,703 |
IRC |
2,161,198 |
IRD |
8,770,250 |
IRW |
558,797 |
J/P HRO |
475,500 |
LFA |
56,604 |
MAEC |
879,792 |
MARCH |
1,988,110 |
MDM Argentina |
550,000 |
MDM Canada |
1,908,148 |
MDM France |
5,270,880 |
MDM Suisse |
1,005,058 |
Mercy Corps |
2,305,853 |
MERLIN |
4,318,738 |
MHDR |
587,400 |
MMRC |
40,000 |
MS |
700,000 |
NCA |
4,787,300 |
OCHA |
9,144,551 |
OEDH |
695,000 |
OHCHR |
1,190,691 |
OI |
336,490 |
OXFAM GB |
5,600,000 |
OXFAM Quebec |
2,065,000 |
PADIH |
185,000 |
PAH |
1,940,980 |
PESADEV |
982,955 |
PK |
285,000 |
PU |
6,236,600 |
RI |
343,971 |
Samaritan's Purse |
37,100,215 |
Saúde em Português |
1,617,000 |
SC |
18,028,942 |
SOIL |
3,288,775 |
Solidarités |
13,034,934 |
TEARFUND |
10,459,982 |
Terre Des Hommes |
3,180,395 |
Un Techo Para Mi Pais |
4,500,000 |
UNDP |
17,155,000 |
UNDSS |
897,400 |
UNESCO |
1,758,000 |
UNFPA |
27,972,000 |
UN-HABITAT |
8,655,000 |
UNHCR |
5,982,458 |
UNICEF |
124,773,840 |
UNOPS |
44,385,269 |
URAMEL |
1,323,591 |
URBATEX |
1,841,125 |
USCRI |
1,000,000 |
WFP |
120,107,574 |
WHO |
40,148,647 |
WVI |
28,896,904 |
Grand Total |
906,961,206 |
During 2010, humanitarian actors focused their efforts on responding to the massive emergency situation caused by the earthquake, which also eroded the capacity of the local government. The humanitarian community, organized into clusters, established a significant number of emergency measures to meet the strategic objectives of the Flash Appeal 2010. But despite the effort made in 2010 to address Haiti's massive needs, the necessity of humanitarian assistance is expected to continue in 2011. More than 1.3 million of people remain displaced, spread across 1,354 settlement sites, or camps.
Based on the basic humanitarian principles of accountability, predictability and complementarity, the aid community should:
2010 Haiti Humanitarian Appeal Strategic Objectives and Achievements | |
Indicator |
Achieved by December 2010 |
Strategic Objective 1: Provide the full needed range of humanitarian support for at least 1,200,000 earthquake-affected people who need shelter and other time-critical life-saving actions, especially in water/sanitation/hygiene, health care, NFI, food aid, nutritional support, education and protection, emphasizing the key linkages among these sectors | |
Overall Target: At least 1,200,000 earthquake-affected people in Haiti and in the Dominican Republic have access to safe drinking water and sanitation, shelter, primary healthcare, nutrition support and regular and adequate food. | |
Number of household NFIs distributed. |
Over 2.1 million household NFIs and toolkits have been distributed of a total target of approximately three million. |
Number of households receiving waterproof cover within three months (estimated numbers of families affected: 302,977). |
350,466 households received emergency shelter. |
Transitional shelter provided as 31 December 2010 (target 123,350). |
1,783 T-shelters built. 78% of the 123,350 needed transitional shelters have already been funded. |
Percentage of priority spontaneous sites with camp management or camp committee in place. |
From the 21 spontaneous 95% have camp management agencies (CMA) in place. 54% of all large camps have camp management in place.5 Coverage of population (IDPs in camps) 67%. |
Affected population (1.2 million) have access to 15 litres of safe drinking water per person and per day. |
At least five litres of safe water per person per day have been delivered through water trucking to 1.1 million people. |
Sanitation coverage is improved from 1:198 (across all sites) to 1:50 in large settlement sites and segregated by sex (11,000 toilets to be constructed in three months). |
Sanitation coverage 1:200 in all sites. |
Campsites of over 5,000 people covered by either mobile or fixed medical services. |
40% of campsites covered by either mobile or fixed services. |
At least 1.9 million (1.5 million in camps + 600,000 with host communities) people receive food rations. |
4,309,987 people received food rations. |
550,000 children 6-59 and pregnant and lactating. women receive blanket supplementary feeding product. |
550,000 children 6-59 and pregnant and lactating women (PLW) received blanket supplementary feeding product. |
Number of earthquake-damaged/destroyed schools cleared of debris (target for 2010: 250). |
176 schools cleared of debris. |
Number of children benefitting from temporary learning space (target for 2010: 850,000). |
194,893 benefitting from temporary learning spaces. |
Number of child-friendly spaces (CFS) (target for 2010: 350). |
350 CFS established and managed by 41 organizations reaching 80,300 children and adolescents. |
Number of children who benefit from psycho-social activities (target for 2010: 350,000). Separated children are registered and can access family tracing services. |
55,000 children benefit from psycho-social activities. 4,372 separated children registered and 1,101 reunified with their families or primary caregivers (some 40% were separated prior to the earthquake). |
Number of women-friendly community centres established. |
Number of centres cannot be evaluated to date. |
Numhber of children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) receive timely and quality care. |
10,000 children 0-59 months suffering from SAM treated timely and with quality (30% of all SAM Haitian children) |
Indicator |
Achieved Dec-2010 |
Strategic Objective 2: Re-establish existing or establish new (temporary, though taking advantage of opportunities for sustainability) physical and social infrastructure and services for approximately three million earthquake-affected people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, including health, food security, economic livelihoods support, education, community spaces and community groups. | |
Overall Target: More than 500,000 people (40% women) from affected communities are provided with short-term employment opportunities, safety nets, or grants opportunities over a 12-month period, indirectly benefiting up to 2.5 million people. | |
Number of population benefiting from cash-for- work (CFW)/food for work (FFW), by gender (target for 2010: 500,000 out of which 40% are women. |
Temporary jobs and source for income provided to 102,126 workers, of which some 40% women. |
Number of most vulnerable affected directly and indirectly produces their food and some additional revenue over a period of 4-5 months (target for 2010: 102,000). |
98,000 of the most affected produce their food and some additional revenue over a period of 4-5 months. |
Tonnage of rubble removed, sorted out and recycled in a sound environmental manner. |
200,000 people have been benefiting from FFW/CFW and contributed to debris clearing, garbage and refuse removal, and cleaning and rehabilitation of drainage systems. |
Indicator |
Achieved Dec-2010 |
Strategic Objective 3: Continue the strengthening of Government capacity for coordination at all levels, and the rapid scale-up of common services, including logistics, telecommunications, security, and coordination in the face of current severe conditions, plus expected worse conditions in the near future | |
Overall target: Effective coordination mechanisms to avoid overlaps, competition and harm between projects are in place at different levels and with all relevant stakeholders. | |
Comprehensive humanitarian strategy, endorsed by Humanitarian Country Team (HCT), guiding. humanitarian action in support of national priorities. |
Humanitarian strategy updated in Appeal Mid-Year Review. Settlement strategy articulated and under discussion with Government of Haiti (GoH). |
Established cluster coordination structure with clear government representation in 100% of the clusters. |
All clusters well established with GoH participation. |
Effective coordination mechanisms set up overseeing and enforcing strategic decision-making (HCT and other mechanisms coordinating government, humanitarian, military and donor response). |
HCT set up within weeks, Coordination Support Committee established to oversee and enforce strategic coordination co-chaired by the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General (DSRSG) of MINUSTAH and the GoH. Joint Operation and Tasking Centre (JOTC) established to serve humanitarian actors to seek assistance from the United Nations (UN) military and police capacities. |
Agreed action plan and timeline for clusters to merge into national architecture for recovery and development. |
All clusters currently engaging with GoH counterparts. ER, Agriculture, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) and Education already have good GoH participation and now based outside log base. |
Comprehensive 3W database – regularly updated and Inter-agency needs assessment conducted. |
3W established but incomplete. Good gap analysis for shelter. An information system identifying and displaying with sophisticated graphic gaps for all clusters is adopted by the International Computing Centre and currently under implementation. Initial inter-agency needs-assessment conducted. Further analysis recommended and the need to be determined. |
Indicator |
Achieved as of Mid-Year |
Strategic Objective 4: Put in place preparedness, disaster risk reduction, and contingency planning (each mainstreamed throughout clusters) in anticipation of worsening conditions resulting from the imminent rainy and hurricane season and their associated risks of flooding, mudslides and storm surges. | |
Overall target 1: Emergency response materials pre-positioned, contingency planning exercises conducted and early warning capacities for disasters caused by hydro-meteorological hazards developed. | |
Overall target 2: Concerted plans and mappings of interventions owned by public authorities are prepared and implemented leading to enhanced coordination and maximized use of resources. | |
Overall target 3: Effective early recovery coordination mechanisms to avoid overlaps, competition and harm between projects are in place at different levels and with all kinds of stakeholders. | |
Practical disaster preparedness and disaster response plans agreed in the key disaster-prone areas of Jacmel, Léogâne and Gonaïves. |
National response plan has been articulated. Work is now ongoing to develop local plans. |
ERT operational in PaP, Jacmel, Léogâne and Gonaïves. |
ERT established and already deployed in PaP. |
Contingency planning for the upcoming rainy and hurricane season is completed. Number of IDPs on sites vulnerable to flooding relocated. Number of IDPs sites prepared for rainy season. Quantity of relief goods pre-positioned. An interim geo-hazard and building hazard management plan is completed and implemented. |
Contingency plan developed and operational. |
The following pages contain details on achievements per cluster in 2010 versus targets.
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
Coordination of the response in agriculture ensuring an efficient use of the resources deployed. |
1.1 A common approach for food security, nutrition and livelihood interventions, through coordinated strategies discussed in the Food Security Cluster. |
All cluster partners follow strategy outlined in Ministère de l’Agriculture, des Ressources Naturelles et du Développement Rural (MARNDR) and cluster strategic documents. |
100% of partners following MARNDR Plan d’Investissement |
1.2 The Coordination Nationale de la Sécurité Alimentaire (National Coordination of Food Security [CNSA]) capacity to collect data at all administrative unit levels and to analyse it has been strengthened, with the departmental observatories for food security including at least one nutrition indicator in the methodology for monitoring food security. |
CNSA producing regular reports on food security and nutrition per department. |
80% of departmental reports produced | |
1.5 Donors and other humanitarian partners are provided with timely, accurate and transparent information on food security, nutrition and livelihoods in the country. Complementarities and synergy increased and duplication or conflict avoided/limited. Level of confidence among stakeholders, partners and target groups increased. Methodologies for streamlining of processes are improved/developed in view of “pending’’ disasters. |
The Agriculture Cluster houses information for all partners active in agriculture and provides weekly and ad hoc reports to partners. |
80%. The cluster houses information for most partners active in agriculture and provides reports to the Government and other partners through mapping software, publishes them regularly on the cluster websites and provides them as well as other data to partners on and ad hoc basis for strategic decision-making. | |
Support to food security rehabilitating the food production capacity of the most vulnerable rural-affected families, while promoting the sustainable intensification of food production. |
2.1 Number of most vulnerable affected directly and indirectly by the earthquake produce their food and some additional revenue over a period of 4-5 months. |
200,000 |
142 000 – Spring Season 150 000 – Summer Season |
Reduction of risks related to natural disasters creating employment and contributing to self-recovery in selected watersheds. |
3.1 Number of affected displaced and host vulnerable families receive economic support that allows them to obtain food and essential goods, to rapidly restore some level of self-sufficiency. |
Food security increases in communities affected by poor watershed management. |
100% Food security has increased according to Famine Early Warning System reports. |
3.2 The integrated management of risks related to natural disasters is promoted in selected watersheds. |
Priority watersheds* have integrated management plans * as defined by MARNDR Plan d’Investissement. |
30% - Ten out of the thirty watersheds identified in the MARNDR plan as priority watersheds have integrated management plans.* *Data collection in completed at this stage |
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
Objective 1: Provide support to the earthquake-affected displaced population and host communities by ensuring dignified and safe living conditions. |
1.1 Percentage of priority spontaneous settlement sites with camp management or camp committee in place. |
IDP sites over 1,000 households with at least 75% coverage by CMAs or Camp Committees. |
The CMA6 coverage reaches 79.46% of the households currently hosted in targeted IDP sites over 1,000 households, for a total of 78,288 households. 100% of the 45 IDP sites over 1,000 households (around 98,525 households) have either CMA or Camp Committee coverage. |
Objective 2: Ensure IDPs in settlements receive effective and well-coordinated humanitarian services to meet their protection and assistance needs. |
2.1 Increase in the reported number of camps covered by CMAs and other service providers. |
25% increase in coverage for priority sites. |
306,233 households (95% of the population), residing in 1,217 IDP sites (90% of the IDP sites) are under either CMA or Camp Committee coverage. 169,262 families in IDP sites (53% of the population) receive direct assistance from CMAs. 151,886 households (47% of the population) are frequently visited by the Camp Management Operation7 teams in order to keep track of their situation. It is difficult to estimate an accurate level of services provision coverage, because there are many organizations working in the same areas, with frequent overlaps and reporting gaps. |
Objective 3: Support improved conditions in camps through projects focusing on mitigating measures (i.e. management for priority camps, fire safety, DRR, information campaigns, governance issues). |
3.1 Number of camps reached by projects focusing on mitigation measures. |
65% of camps or spontaneous settlements are reached by related projects. |
Around 44% of the IDP sites have been reached by related projects. |
Objective 4: Support for a safe transition strategy to assist IDP returns to places of origin, relocations to host families, planned camps or other transitional shelter options with focus on registration, information campaigns, operational support for relocation. |
4.1 Number of households that are able to relocate to one of the safe shelter strategy options. |
50% increase in households able to relocate from spontaneous settlements to another safe shelter strategy option. |
To date 3,559 households have been able to move to safe shelter strategy options such as planned relocation sites, host families or they returned to their homes, representing an increase of 79% from the 2000 households reported in the mid-year review of the 2010 Consolidated Appeal Process (CAP). |
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1. Effective coordination of humanitarian response. |
1.1 Comprehensive humanitarian strategy, endorsed by HCT, guiding humanitarian action in support of national priorities. |
Forced Eviction, Relocation strategy finalized. |
Document drafted |
1.2 Established cluster coordination structure with clear government representation in the clusters. |
Education WASH
Health Agriculture Nutrition CCCM
|
70% 70%
70% 70%
70% 70%
| |
1.5 Weekly outreach activities to different stakeholders – beneficiairies, civil society and private sector. |
Regular outreach activities. |
80% | |
2. Coordinated disaster preparedness and response. |
2.1 Practical disaster preparedness and disaster response plans agreed in the key disaster-prone areas of Jacmel, Léogâne and Gonaïves. |
National Contingency Plan Artibonite South and South East
|
Completed Completed Completed
|
2.2 ERTs operational in PaP, Jacmel, Léogâne and Goniaves. |
Emergency cell at ntional Level Mitigation Task Force Assessment working group
|
Activated Activated Activated | |
3. Comprehensive strategy to ensure smooth transition to longer-term recovery in support of national priorities. |
3.1 Agreed action plan and timeline for clusters to merge into national architecture for recovery and development. |
Transition strategy/ exist cluster strategy |
Draft |
4. Strategic information management and analysis to enhance decision-making and inform strategic planning. |
4.1 Comprehensive 3W database – regularly updated. |
Monthly |
70% |
4.2 An information system for progress tracking of the Flash Appeal indicators for all clusters established and regularly updated. |
Quarterly |
30% | |
4.3 Inter-cluster assessments/monitoring system established. |
Quarterly |
30% |
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Enhance coordination for aid effectiveness and strengthen Government (national and local governments) leadership and community engagement in the reconstruction and recovery efforts. |
1.1 Number of area-based multi-sector concerted actions facilitated through ER Cluster coordination and network at the national and local levels. |
Between five and 10 concerted actions. |
With the re-activation of the ER Cluster and the consolidation of eight working groups, concerted actions – information exchange, coordination meetings, and contributions to national strategies- are occurring on weekly basis. Strategic advice, sectoral information exchange and guidelines on ER are available to facilitate decision-making purposes. Head working groups are providing inputs for the definition of national strategies on: 1) Debris management; 2) urban and rural planning, and; 3) livelihoods and job creation. |
1.2 Percentage of target beneficiaries benefiting from advisory and coordination services provided to Government institutions and to affected and host communities via Cellule de Reflexion/Task Force, support to local governments, reconstruction support centres, and information mobile units and media. |
Up to 20% of about two million people (until end 2010). |
The Cluster and thematic working groups have advised and supported coordination to engage local government, reconstruction support centres, mobile information units and the media to reach between 10-20% of about two million people. More than 50 organizations, including national and international NGOs, UN agencies, donors and private sector entities participate on a regular basis in the ER Cluster and thematic working groups. Representatives from line ministries have also participate but leadership from national authorities remains a challenge. |
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
2 Create temporary jobs that provide immediate source of income through CFW/FFW and building people’s life skills for sustainable improvement of people’s livelihoods and instigating ‘deconcentration’ of economic activities within the country’s territory. |
2.1 Percentage of total target beneficiaries (2,000,000) (gender and social group disaggregated) having immediate source of income and benefit from livelihood opportunities created through CFW and FFW schemes. |
10% to 20% (or between 200,000 and 400,000 people, of whom 40% women) from affected and non-affected communities. |
Figures from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and World Food Programme’s (WFP) programmes indicate that, by 22 October 2010, over 200,000 workers, 40% of whom are women, have been employed since the start of the programme on 20 January. From this figure, 19,164 have been employed through joint programmes (with WFP) in five different departments (west, south-east, Artibonite, south and north-west). It is estimated that by the end of 2010, the number of beneficiaries of livelihoods opportunities will reach more than 500,000 people, taking into account other programmes, particularly the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) livelihoods programme with the GoH. |
2.2 Number of people trained have improved employability or enabled and facilitated to start micro and small businesses and enterprises. |
Between 500 and 1,500 people (out of whom 40 to 50% are women and youth or people with disabilities). |
More than 1,000 people have received vocational training (out of whom 40 to 50% are women and youth or people with disabilities). Additionally, large scale CFW programmes have included training to team coordinators and specialized workers. Vocational training programmes and reinforcement of national education institutions started prioritizing job training in 2010, concentrating on most essential opportunities e.g. reconstruction (block maker, carpenters, plumbers, etc.) and boosting production and manufacturing enterprises. |
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
3 Facilitate restoration of and restore social, productive and basic infrastructure and services in affected and non-affected areas to pave the way towards ‘de-concentration’ of economic activities for a more balance distribution of settlements and territorial development. |
3.1 Percentage of hanging damaged buildings/building ruins demolished, rubble and accumulated debris cleared and recycled in highly populated affected areas of PAPand in Jacmel, Miragoane, Léogâne, Petit Goâve, Grand Goâve and Cabaret. |
Up to 10% (Slow progress due to rainy and hurricane season + lack of heavy equipment should be taken into consideration.) |
More than 5% of debris has been managed. Debris management activities, combining the use of heavy machinery with high labour intensity works are being implemented in highly populated affected areas. Projects from UN agencies, NGOs, MINUSTAH and government include collection, sorting and recycling of rubble in a sound environmental and strategic manner. Rubble initiatives have been coordinated by the Project Management Coordination Cell. Since October 2010, the Debris Management Working Group, with the support of UNDP, facilitates information exchange and coordination within the context of the ER Cluster. Partners, such as United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), support the work in an institutional capacity-building role - supporting the Ministry of Public Works (MTPTC) identify houses to be repaired or demolished. |
3.2 Number of settlement upgrading projects, including restoration of basic infrastructure and vital life-support systems, rehabilitation of houses and building shelter in affected and non-affected areas. |
Three to four settlement upgrading projects in affected and non-affected areas at least started and upscaled. |
Settlement upgrading projects have started in at least in five different areas including Cap Haitian, Gonaïves, Jacmel, Léogâne and PaP. |
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
4 Mainstream gender equality and environmental management, including disaster risk management in reconstruction and recovery efforts. |
4.1 Number of activities implemented to mainstream gender equality in recovery and reconstruction efforts across projects and sectors. |
Up to three collaborative activities and joint project proposals developed and implemented to promote and increase activities that address specific needs of people with a disability, female-headed households, youth, children and the elderly. |
All projects submitted to the CAP have been gender screened (pioneers in promoting the use of gender marker). The ER Cluster has nominated a gender focal point to ensure gender mainstreaming in all activities (see cluster terms of reference [ToR] and meeting minutes). United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM) will provide technical support to the Cluster (and all cluster members) to ensure real and feasible gender equality initiatives in all recovery projects. Discussions with Handicap International (HI) are ongoing to nominate a part specialist to ensure integration of disability approach in reconstruction initiatives. |
4.2 Number of projects to mainstream environmental and disaster management in reconstruction and recovery responses. |
At least three projects up and running (that include mainstreaming environmental technical assistance activities) + disaster risk mitigation contingency planning endorsed by the Government and the related operational mechanisms are put in place. |
UNDP, UN Human Settlements Programme and International Labour Organization debris management projects include environmental mainstreaming in the definition of the debris removal and recycling activities. In addition to that, United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) has taken part in the Strategic Advisory Group (SAG) of the ER Cluster with the purpose of ensuring an adequate mainstreaming of environmental issues in recover initiatives. This dimension is particularly relevant in the Debris Management Working Group, were UNEP is also participating. Under the spirit of “building back better”, disaster management in reconstruction and recovery programmes are crucial pillars. ER Cluster, through the Urban and Rural Planning Working Group, is promoting the enforcement of construction codes and safe neighbourhood arrangements. |
Education
Objective |
Indicators |
Target for 2010 |
Achieved to date |
1 Clear debris from heavily damaged and destroyed schools to allow for the resumption of classes in temporary learning spaces. |
1.1 Number of earthquake-damaged or destroyed schools cleared of debris. |
250 |
295 |
1.2 Number of children benefiting from temporary learning spaces. |
850,000 |
270,000 | |
1.5 Number of school tents procured and installed. |
4,000 |
3,675 | |
2 Ensure the quality of emergency education services. |
2.1 Number of teachers trained. |
10,000 |
8,435 |
2.2 Number of children benefiting from provision of basic learning materials. |
700,000 |
1,002,619 | |
3 Support the implementation of the MoE psycho-social strategy to reach all school-going children. |
3.1 Number of education officials trained in psycho-social methodologies. |
5,000 |
5,879 |
4 Increase access to quality early childhood development (ECD) services for children age 0-6. |
4.1 Number of children benefiting from ECD services. |
100,000 |
80,414 |
Emergency Telecommunications
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Provide emergency telecommunications and data-communication networks and services to the humanitarian community. |
1.1 Emergency Telecommunications Cluster project plan prepared and approved based on initial assessment. |
1 |
Project plan was approved and final revision will be made depending on available funds at the end of 2010. |
1.2 Number of local humanitarian organizations receiving emergency telecommunications and data-communication services. |
50 |
80 | |
1.5 Local Emergency Telecommunications Cluster (ETC) Working Group established and regular meetings held. |
48 |
43 weekly and ad hoc meetings have been held. | |
1.4 Number of fully Minimum Operating Security Standard (MOSS) compliant communication centres (COMCEN) established in operational areas. |
7 |
8 | |
2 Provide comprehensive IT and telecommunications services for WFP and logistics operations. |
2.1 Number of local humanitarian organizations included in the common networks. |
30 |
45 |
3 Train staff in efficient and appropriate use of telecommunications equipment and services. |
3.1 Training programmes on use of ETC services provided and number of individuals and group training programmes. |
500 |
To date the Cluster has presented 50 courses and trained about 450 users. Additional courses will be presented based on new demands which are estimated to be 10 courses for 50 users. |
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Phase I: Meet the immediate food needs of the most vulnerable populations through the provision of ready-to-eat food. | Number of earthquake-affected food-insecure population receiving food rations. Quantity of food distributed in metric ton (MT) for earthquake-affected populations vs. planned. Quantity of commodities purchased per type of commodities. |
2,000,000 Quantity for earthquake-affected: 64,700 MTs. Planned purchase of commodities (MT): cereals-139,950, pulses-37,620, veg.oil-17,662, corn-soya blend-14,000, MRE-5,400, salt-2,600, sugar-700, high-energy biscuits-6,650, supplementary plumpy-3,016, plumpy doz-1,680 |
4,309,987 Quantity for earthquake-affected: 52,144 MTs. Commodities purchased (MT): cereals-117,675, pulses-29,076, veg.oil-8,670, corn-soya blend-15,105, MRE-4,277, salt-1,794, sugar-1,350, high-energy biscuits-5,059, supplementary plumpy-2,823, plumpy doz-1,234 |
2 Provide targeted food assistance to vulnerable communities in hospitals, orphanages [finished now] through mobile distributions and organized provision of school meals in primary schools and to all school-age children and nutritional support to at-risk and malnourished pregnant and lactating mothers and children under five. | Number of primary school-age children in school having receiving assistance through school feeding programmes. Number of primary school-age children in school having receiving assistance through school feeding programmes. Number of people assisted in hospitals. Number of people assisted in orphanages. Number of children under five, pregnant and lactating mothers receiving blanket supplementary feeding ration. Number of children under five, pregnant and lactating mothers receiving treatment supplementary feeding. |
School-age children: 1,100,000 Hospital and orphanages: 120,000 Blanket and treatment: 655,005 |
School-age children: 940,226 Hospitals and orphanages: 76,051 Blanket and treatment: 552,586 |
3 Move to food and CFW activities. |
Number of people benefiting from FFW. |
700,000 |
500,000 |
Health
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Effective coordination of the Health Cluster response, needs and disaster risk assessment, monitoring and evaluation, under the authority of the National Health Authority. |
1.1 Ensure mapping and updating of activities of implementing agencies. |
Updated database |
Health Cluster coordination has been in place and by sub-groups as mobile clinics, hospitals, disability and rehabilitation, disease surveillance, reproductive health, mental health and psycho-social support. Outside PaP, there are two sub-clusters in Jacmel and Léogâne. Database of activities of partners has been updated in June and September. |
2 Ensure outbreak control and disease surveillance. |
2.1 Sentinel sites reporting rate on communicable diseases occurrence. |
60% |
60% |
2.2 Vaccines coverage (measles and rubella (MR), diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus (DPT) diphtheria and tetanus (DT) during immunization campaigns in affected area. |
90% |
80% during the first round. The two rounds of vaccines coverage (MR, DPT, DT) during the immunization campaign in affected areas have been implemented. | |
2.3 Percentage of targeted families (in temporary settlements) provided with a mosquito net target 95%. |
95% |
n/a | |
3 Ensure adequate water supply and environmental health. |
3.1 Percentage of public hospitals with water quality test results that reach guidelines values 80% of the time. |
60% |
n/a |
3.2 Percentage of public hospitals with a comprehensive health-care waste management strategy defined. |
60% |
n/a | |
4 Re-activation of basic health-care services for a more integrated health system base in primary health care (PHC). |
4.1 Percentage of public network hospitals providing basic health services, as recommended by World Health Organization (WHO). |
100% |
n/a |
4.2 Campsites of >5,000 people covered by either fixed or mobile services. |
60% |
40% | |
4.3 Proportion of institutional deliveries. |
30% |
n/a | |
4.4 Percentage of health services with clinical management of rape supervisors + emergency contraception + post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) services available. |
100% |
n/a | |
5 Effective treatment and rehabilitation of injured patients |
5.1 Percentage of people with physical impairment due to the earthquake who have had access to rehabilitation services. |
60% |
n/a |
6 Ensure availability of essential drugs and medical supplies. |
6.1 Number of public hospitals with most critical drugs and medical supplies on hand (based on established list) based on on-site assessments. |
100% |
n/a |
6.2 Value of medicines and medical supplies distributed. |
Over $2,000,000 |
n/a | |
6.3 Percentage of hospitals and departmental depots that meet international standards of good drug management. |
n/a |
n/a |
Logistics
Objective |
Indicators (with targets) |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Continue to provide common logistics services to support the humanitarian community’s response. |
1.1 Number of storage facilities made available to the humanitarian community. |
6 |
6 |
1.2 Number of logistics hubs made available to the humanitarian community. |
4 |
4 | |
1.5 Number of trucks made available countrywide to the humanitarian community. |
70 |
70 | |
1.4 Provision of sea assets to the humanitarian community. |
1 |
1 | |
2 Enhance coordination, predictability, timeliness and efficiency of the emergency logistics response under the cluster approach. |
2.1 Number of coordination meetings held. |
45 |
50 |
2.2 Number of maps published. |
27 |
42 | |
2.3 Establishment and participation in the Joint Operation Tasking Centre(JOTC) to coordinate UN agencies, Department of Peace Keeping Operation , NGOs and military actors’ operations. |
1 |
1 | |
3 Support the humanitarian community to carry out their role by providing operational support equipment and facilities. |
3.1 Number of workshops rehabilitated and/or built to support the deployment of the fleet of trucks operating in Haiti. |
4 |
4 |
3.2 Number of accommodation made available to humanitarian workers. |
450 |
450 | |
3.3 Numbers of offices space made available to the humanitarian community. |
220 |
220 | |
4 Support the humanitarian community and nationals authorities by providing support to contingency planning for the cyclone season. |
4.1 Number of assessment missions conducted in the frame of contingency planning. |
8 |
15 |
4.2 Number of advanced prepositioning bases for logistics support (trucks, mobile storage tents, telecom equipment, prefab offices). |
5 |
9 | |
4.3 Number of joint simulation emergency exercises held. |
4 |
3 | |
4.4 Number of storage facilities made available to the humanitarian community for pre-positioning needs. |
4 |
4 |
Nutrition
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Prevent mortality and morbidity associated with malnutrition. |
1.1 5,625 severely malnourished children are admitted into the appropriate selective feeding centre (projected incidence 1.5% and coverage of 50%). |
5625 |
Cumulative March-September 167% (9197) |
1.2 15,750 moderately malnourished children admitted into the appropriate selective feeding programme. |
78,750 |
September 101% | |
1.5 550,000 children 6-59 months and PLWreceive blanket supplementary feeding products. |
100% |
September 74% | |
2 Improve infant and young child feeding practices and outcomes. |
2.1 Ensure there are adequate Points de Conseil de Nutrition pour les Bébés (PCNB) functioning according to the strategy (200- will revise target to 100 as needs evolve). |
100 |
95 |
2.2 Support partners and work through the cluster to monitor and prevent breaches of the International Code of Marketing of Breast milk Substitutes. Donations of powdered milk and/or other breast milk substitutes are prevented through engagement with other clusters and the Government (Direction de la Protection Civile [DPC]) |
No fixed target |
25 breast milk donations intercepted. | |
3 Prevent micronutrient deficiencies. |
3.1 Ensure that 144,000 children 6-59 months receive vitamin A capsules during the vaccination campaigns. |
100% coverage in November |
Activity ongoing |
3.2 Ensure that 550,000 children 6-59 months and PLW receive either lipid-based nutrient spread, micronutrient powders (sprinkles) or multiple micronutrient capsules during the third round of the blanket feeding distribution. |
550,000 beneficiaries |
87% | |
4 Ensure that timely and accurate information is available to monitor nutritional trends. |
4.1 Conduct nutrition surveys in disaster-affected areas. |
100% of coverage for disaster-affected areas |
65% |
4.2 Establish sentinel sites to monitor monthly trends. |
Establishment of sentinel sites and collection of data. |
Surveillance will include National Survey. Programmatic data and active screening data instead. | |
4.3 Establish feeding centre database to monitor monthly selective feeding centre admissions and performance indicators. |
Establishment and maintenance of database. |
Completed | |
4.4 Establish infant and young child feeding monthly reporting for partners to monitor trends. |
Establishment and maintenance of database. |
Completed | |
5 Improve and protect household food security through livelihood initiatives. |
Define nutritionally vulnerable households and target with conditional cash transfers and fresh-food vouchers to promote food security and micro-credit linked with alternative fuel use (female-headed households, border households, etc.). |
Establishment of support mechanism in collaboration with Food Aid and Agriculture Clusters. |
No progress to date but planned for Common Humanitarian Action Plan (CHAP) 2011. |
Protection
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Identify gaps in the protection of earthquake-affected people to enhance protection responses. Focus on gaps in responses related to durable solutions for IDPs, particularly in the context of the Safe Shelter Strategy. |
1.1 4 Participatory assessments on protection of IDPs in camps and in host families completed. |
100% |
50% |
1.2 12 situation or thematic reports generated and disseminated by the Protection Cluster, including on the issue of evacuation, relocation and durable solutions. |
100% |
75% | |
1.3 Protection issues monitored in informal and formal settlements, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups. |
70% |
80% | |
1.4 Recommendations and action points to relevant national and international actors on protection issues are made. |
70% |
80% | |
4 Strengthen the response of communities and relevant actors including the GoH, and national and international organizations to protection challenges, in particular the protection of vulnerable groups. |
2.1 12 trainings on protection of IDPs undertaken for camp managers, human rights monitors and national authorities. |
80% |
75% |
2.2 Vulnerable individuals and groups, in particular disabled, old people, people with mental disorders and individuals with no support, have access to protection and assistance. |
80% |
45% | |
2.3 85 quick-impact projects implemented and relief protection items benefiting 400,000 IDPs in host communities and camps, in particular the most vulnerable people. |
100% |
68% | |
2.4 At least three national institutions’ (Office de la Protection du Citoyen [OPC]), DPC, Ministry of Justice (MoJ) capacity to respond to protection issues, particularly in the context of reconstruction, return and local integration, are reinforced through the provision of material support and human resources. |
80% |
75% | |
5 Advocate rights-based interventions for the protection of affected communities by setting policies and strategies. |
3.1 Policy and strategy papers on thematic protection issues are drafted. |
70% |
75% |
3.2 Information on key protection issues is provided to affected populations, targeting in particular people with special needs. |
90% |
60% |
Protection Sub-Cluster: Child Protection
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Prevent and respond to separated and unaccompanied children. |
Number of active sub-cluster members. |
60 |
72 |
Number of caseworkers trained to register, trace and follow up with separated children. |
250 |
140 | |
Number of children registered total. |
5,000 |
4,635 | |
Number of families actively traced. |
5,000 |
1,135 | |
Number of families currently in mediation. |
1,500 |
288 | |
Number of child trafficking victims reunified with their families through the Family Tracing and Reunification Programme. |
350 |
N/A | |
Percentage of children who have been reunified with their families. |
30% |
25% | |
2 Strengthen the GoH’s capacity to protect children from violence, trafficking, exploitation, abuse and neglect. |
GoH CP strategy (yes/no). |
Yes |
Yes |
Number of child trafficking victims intercepted and provided with necessary support (Brigades for Protection of Minors [BPM]). |
500 |
2,800 (suspected) 21 proofed | |
Number of Institute de Bien-Être Social et Recherche (IBESR) offices set up and fully operational. |
5 |
5 | |
Number of IBESR staff trained on temporary care and psycho-social support. |
140 |
140 | |
Number of BPM antennae (operational sites). |
5 |
5 | |
Number of BPM agents in border areas. |
8 |
8 | |
Number of BPM staff trained on temporary care and psycho-social support. |
50 |
72 | |
3 Strengthen and support for community-based mechanisms for CP, including creation and support for community-based CP focal points and networks, and creation and implementation of CFS with psycho-social support for children and their caregivers. |
Number of child-friendly spaces. |
350 |
437 |
Number of children who benefit from psycho-social activities. |
350,000 |
105,000 | |
Functional referral network in place (yes/no). |
Yes |
Yes | |
Number of protection committees established. |
175 |
88 | |
Number of protection cases identified and referred to relevant authorities/services. |
200 |
N/A | |
Number of women and girls assisted with relevant services. |
200 |
N/A | |
Number of women's centres established. |
5 |
N/A | |
Number of women and girls trained on life-skills issues. |
40,000 |
50,000 | |
Number of trainings conducted with relevant staff working in CFS on GBV. |
150 |
100 |
Protection Sub-Cluster: Prevention of and Response to Gender-Based Violence
Objective |
Indicators |
Target 2010 |
Achieved to date |
1 Preventing GBV through work with security and other sectors. |
1.1 Training conducted for camp management, and other relevant actors on GBV prevention for displaced people. |
Three trainings to be conducted. |
Three trainings conducted. |
1.2 NFI distributed to protect women and girls from GBV, exploitation and abuse. |
20,000 flash lights distributed. 50,000 dignity kits. |
16,750 flash lights distributed. 100 solar lamps installed in over 30 camps 60,000 dignity kits distributed, including 20,000 as part of cholera response.
| |
1.3 Programmes funded and implemented for vocational trainings and livelihoods for vulnerable women and girls. |
Minimum of five livelihood vocational training programmes are available for women and girls. |
Livelihood and vocational training for girls and women are part of the ER Cluster strategy. | |
1.4 GBV prevention campaigns are carried out across the country (in PaP and outside). |
Six messages aired on all national radios. |
Continuous prevention campaigns taking place across the country. GBV prevention song competition on national radio carried out. | |
1.5 Participation in patrols and security assessments to ensure that women and girls are receiving adequate protection. |
Participation in two Joint security assessments and daylight patrols in camps. |
Participation in two joint security assessments and patrols. | |
2 Ensuring women and girl survivors of GBV have access to essential services. |
2.1 Reference information is communicated to ensure referrals can be made for survivors. |
50,000 referrals cards distributed. |
Over 50,000 referral cards distributed. |
2.2 Number of case managers trained. |
100 direct service providers trained on case management. |
150 Cases managers trained through grass root organizations. | |
2.3 Number of humanitarian service providers trained on adequate response to GBV survivors. |
Minimum 100 humanitarian actors trained on adequate response to GBV survivors. |
Over 200 humanitarian actors trained on adequate response to GBV survivors. | |
2.4 GBV response messages aired across the country. |
Creation of six new GBV messages |
Continuous messaging on GBV on National radios. | |
3 Re-establishing monitoring, reporting and coordination mechanisms. |
3.1 Weekly coordination meetings are conducted with relevant actors on issues of GBV response and prevention. 3.1 Ensure mapping and updated activities nationwide. |
Minimum of 25 meetings conducted. Updated mapping available. |
At least 25 bi-weekly meeting conducted as the GBV Sub-Cluster, referral group and communications group. Updated mapping available. |
3.2 Existence of GBV Sub-Cluster Working Groups at the sub-national level (nine departments + PaP). |
Six sub-national working groups established. |
Three sub-national working groups established in areas immediately affected by earthquake. | |
3.3 Number of service-providing agencies trained in the use of the national form for data collection. |
50 service providing agencies trained on data sharing protocols and use of the national form for data collection. |
50 services providers trained on the national tools and protocols, the training on the national form on data collection has been postponed until the results of the mapping exercise. | |
3.4 National form for data collection revised to be aligned with international good practice. |
Minimum of two meetings held to discuss challenges related to utilizing the national form. |
One meeting was held however it was decided that the revision of the national form was not a priority at this stage. | |
3.5 Number of service providers who are part of the GBV Sub-Cluster using the national form for data collection for reporting cases. |
50 direct service providing agencies are actively engaged trained on the national form. |
This activity has been postponed until the results of the mapping exercise in order to identify key partners to be trained. |
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Emergency shelter within three months, before the hurricane season. |
1.1 Percentage of families receiving NFI support within three months. Estimated number of families affected 302,977. |
100% |
66,1% |
1.2 Percentage of families receiving waterproof cover within three months. Estimated number of families affected 302,977. |
100% |
159% | |
1.5 Percentage of families whose houses have been assessed for seismic, rain and hurricane risk – 188,383 homes destroyed or damaged.8 |
100% |
About 90% | |
2 Full transitional shelter within the next 12 months. |
2.1 Percentage of families receiving support with hurricane-resistant shelter before 2011. Current target, 123,350 transitional shelters by 1 June 2011. |
100% |
19,089 units equals 15,5 % |
2.2 Transitional shelter targeting criteria developed and implemented. |
Fully reached |
reached | |
2.3 Earthquake-affected families have access to accurate public information on shelter-related hazards - 188,383 homes destroyed or damaged.9 |
100% |
Not exactly known | |
3 Detailed gathering of all transitional shelter needs in the next six months, adopting a zoned structure with shelter actors assessing and sharing the needs in zones they work, avoiding gaps and duplication. |
3.1 Clear mapping of areas where shelter actors are implementing / assessing. |
100% |
95% |
3.2 Coordination meetings with coordination hubs operating in PaP, Léogâne, Petit-Goâve and Jacmel. |
Fully reached |
reached | |
3.3 Shelter needs assessed in all key earthquake-affected areas. |
100% |
reached |
WASH
Objective |
Indicators |
2010 Target |
Achieved to date |
1 Ensure equitable access to safe drinking water for displaced people, directly or indirectly affected by the earthquake, to cluster-defined standards. |
1.1 Percentage of people with access to 10 litres/person/day of safe water. |
10 litre/person/day |
Six litre/person/day |
1.2 Percentage of sites where trucked water distribution points meet national water quality standards (chlorine residual only). |
100% |
66% in Port -au -Prince (PaP) and 35% in rural areas | |
2 Ensure adequate excreta disposal facilities for all earthquake-affected populations according to and appropriate for the type of settlement site so that no excreta is visible in site surroundings and no queues. |
2.1 Number of people per functioning latrine. |
1:50 |
1:113 |
2.2 Number of people per functioning shower/bathing space. |
1:50 |
1:245 | |
3 Contribute to reducing the risk of WASH-related diseases among earthquake-affected populations by mobilizing them to use provided water, sanitation and hygiene facilities effectively for better hygiene and dignity. |
3.1 Percentage of sites with adequate numbers of functioning hand-washing stations (soap and water present). |
80% |
n/a |
3.2 Percentage of men, women and children, including people with disabilities, who can demonstrate knowledge of key hygiene practices. |
90% |
60% | |
3.3 Percentage of sites with ongoing hygiene promotion activities using trained promoters. |
80% |
29%-44% of sites, however approx. 60% of population |
Haiti Revised Humanitarian Appeal (January - December 2010): Requirements and funding to date per cluster | ||||||
Cluster |
Original requirements |
Revised requirements |
Funding |
Unmet requirements |
% Covered |
Uncommitted pledges |
|
($) |
($) |
($) |
($) |
|
($) |
|
A |
B |
E=C+D |
B-E |
E/B |
F |
AGRICULTURE |
23,000,000 |
58,818,036 |
31,526,150 |
27,291,886 |
54% |
- |
CAMP COORDINATION AND CAMP MANAGEMENT |
1,300,000 |
78,779,460 |
36,196,220 |
42,583,240 |
46% |
- |
COORDINATION AND SUPPORT SERVICES |
10,487,579 |
21,861,148 |
21,998,478 |
- 137,330 |
101% |
- |
EARLY RECOVERY |
49,218,850 |
140,705,800 |
53,617,941 |
87,087,859 |
38% |
- |
EDUCATION |
11,100,000 |
87,536,872 |
85,523,861 |
2,013,011 |
98% |
- |
EMERGENCY TELECOMMUNI-CATIONS |
782,460 |
4,433,765 |
782,460 |
3,651,305 |
18% |
- |
FOOD AID |
246,039,060 |
486,742,542 |
353,534,757 |
133,207,785 |
73% |
2,111,614 |
HEALTH |
33,900,000 |
140,320,179 |
103,096,178 |
37,224,001 |
73% |
450,000 |
LOGISTICS |
33,527,705 |
89,843,876 |
64,629,799 |
25,214,077 |
72% |
- |
NUTRITION |
48,400,000 |
48,108,992 |
46,236,495 |
1,872,497 |
96% |
- |
PROTECTION |
16,230,000 |
71,867,732 |
42,940,134 |
28,927,598 |
60% |
100,000 |
SHELTER AND NON-FOOD ITEMS |
29,250,000 |
162,263,354 |
102,276,697 |
59,986,657 |
63% |
220,000 |
WATER, SANITATION AND HYGIENE |
58,825,000 |
110,939,574 |
97,216,853 |
13,722,721 |
88% |
- |
CLUSTER NOT SPECIFIED |
- |
- |
40,633,489 |
n/a |
n/a |
- |
Grand Total |
562,060,654 |
1,502,221,330 |
1,080,209,512 |
422,011,818 |
72% |
2,881,614 |
Of course, a signal feature of the Haiti earthquake has been the huge funding response, the majority of which (some $2.4 billion) was not directed to projects in this 2010 action plan and appeal. Much of that was consumed by large-scale logistical operations, for example involving militaries of contributing countries. The clusters have accounted for actions funded outside the appeal as much as possible in updating their plans and funding requests; and while it may seem hard to believe that these billions of dollars of resources left any funding needs unmet, the clusters have been able to demonstrate significant gaps that could have been closed with additional resources.
Some 1.8 million people were deemed to be “food-insecure” prior to the earthquake.11 Malnutrition was also prevalent – with global acute malnutrition (GAM12) increased from 5% in 1995 to 7% in 2000 to 9% in 2005-2008.13 In 2008-2009 it was 4.5%.14 Based on a GAM prevalence of 4.5% and SAM prevalence of 0.8%, in the affected population aged 6-59 months prior to the emergency, there were an estimated 15,967 children with acute malnutrition, of which an estimated 2,839 with SAM. In infants under six months old, 1,549 have acute malnutrition, of whom 275 have SAM.
The best-case scenario foresees an election campaign that proceeds with minimal tension, resulting in peaceful elections that create political stability. A secure government would then be in a good position to develop a clear, strategic and comprehensive plan for reconstruction and relocation of displaced people and damaged infrastructure, which focuses on providing universal access to basic services. Such a government would also be willing to work with humanitarian actors and civil society towards an overall humanitarian action plan.
The major conditions that could precipitate a worst-case scenario would be either a second humanitarian disaster or series of disasters such as flooding, mudslides or disease outbreaks; or a contested election that leads to violence. Either situation will substantially disrupt both the humanitarian response and reconstruction, and potentially lead to violence within the camps themselves, either politically motivated or sparked by a scarcity of resources and assistance. In the disaster scenario, in particular, there would likely also be an increase in the number of people in the camps rather than a decrease, and an exodus from rural areas. The massive increase in insecurity would make aid harder to supply, and could initiate a vicious downward spiral. Rioting in the camps and the need for peacekeepers’ intervention would further deteriorate relations between international actors and the local community. There is already ill will towards the UN mission, and an increase in that sentiment could put serious challenges in the way of any aid distribution at all. Also, a fuel crisis is possible if unrest continues, since Haiti does not produce any of its own fuel. Even short of full-scale violence, such a situation could result in camps assuming a permanent or semi-permanent status as new urban slums.
Another factor that could lead to similar results would be a substantial decrease in the aid available, because donors choose to re-direct it to other emergencies, because of a lack of funding due to the worsening economies in the US and Europe, diminished media attention, or due to corruption within the aid community. An inability to meet basic humanitarian needs, coupled with a sense of broken promises among the population, could have negative results. Other potentially disruptive factors that could lead to spiralling instability would include scenarios where the Government fails to act to address land tenure issues (described above); an increase in forced evictions in the camps, leading to rioting and UN intervention; or a situation where sustainable development strategies ignore the humanitarian aspect, leading to widespread resentment.
At the moment, the most likely scenario is that elections will be contested but will not lead to an immediate political crisis; however, the State will still be weak and in need of support. Hopefully, this will lead to an end of State paralysis and the un-blocking of aid supplies. Many NGOs will shift their focus from humanitarian to development aid, and will develop more experience and capacity, and will build stronger relationships with local communities. More aid will become available, and big projects will start, leading to increased visibility of the aid effort and some economic growth. This will be balanced by uncertainty, however, as media attention to the crisis continues to flag, and future donor funds and remittances remain uncertain.
There are a number of cross-cutting risk factors in all three scenarios: