Sample of organizations participating in consolidated appeals

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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The overall situation in Haiti continues to be one of large-scale displacement. The January 12 earthquake displaced around 2.1 million people, of whom 1.3 million still reside in settlements in the affected areas and 600,000^¹ live with host families. Many people who already lived in situations of poverty and vulnerability before the earthquake have since fallen into severe humanitarian need.
In the 10 months since the earthquake, the humanitarian response has largely stabilized into a continuous provision of basic needs. Most of the activities were focused on the camps, while many people living outside the camps and communities in rural areas were left out, something that is both a source of social tension and a factor inhibiting the return of displaced people.
T
2011 Consolidated Appeal for Haiti: Key parameters

Duration:	12 months - 2011
Key targets in 2011:	Return & reintegration of 40% of IDPs Continued assistance to remaining IDP population in camps Containment of/response to the cholera outbreak
Target beneficiaries:	2.1 million affected by earthquake Population in areas affected by cholera
Total funding request		Funding request per beneficiary:
$906,961,206		$432

he situation as it exists is extremely fragile, and the current stability could be upset by a variety of causes, including more natural disasters such as mudslides, flooding, cyclones, or disease outbreaks. The country is in the middle of a severe cholera outbreak. The cumulative number of cholera cases between 20 October and 16 November was 49,418, out of which 40% (19,646) have been hospitalized. The cumulative number of deaths due to cholera was 1,186 (774 at the hospital level and 412 at the community level), which puts the in‐hospital case fatality rate at 3.9% and the mortality rate at 14.16 per 100,000 inhabitants. The majority of cases have been reported outside the capital (in rural areas not affected by the earthquake, thus demonstrating how prolonged socio-economic vulnerabilities can cause unforeseen humanitarian needs and require additional humanitarian preparedness and response). Such events risk creating even more displacement and instability, and highlight the need for more external support.
The Consolidated Appeal aims to ensure continued humanitarian aid for more than two million^²earthquake-affected people, to support the return of thousands of displaced people, and to contribute to the transition from emergency to longer-term recovery programmes. Supporting disaster risk reduction, contingency planning, authorities and communities are also key elements of the 2011 Consolidated Appeal. These efforts will require a total of US$^³906,961,206 in funding.

The 1.3 million people living in camps still require basic services to survive: shelter, food and water, sanitation and health care, education and protection are all ongoing needs. Equally important for long-term stability is encouraging the return of the displaced, something that requires quickly restoring damaged social infrastructure, or in some cases creating it anew. Making health and education services available, providing temporary employment, and ensuring that the displaced, in particular, can maintain a safe food supply are priorities. The Government of Haiti was also seriously affected by the earthquake: state buildings were destroyed, records were lost, and thousands of civil servants were killed. Particularly given this situation, the government needs support in facing the challenge of defining and implementing durable solutions. Finally, preparedness measures must be put in place to prevent natural disasters and further disease outbreaks, or to reduce their effects should they occur.

As large-scale reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts have begun and will continue throughout 2011, the humanitarian community will focus on strictly emergency humanitarian activities during the coming year. The long-term response to this crisis is being coordinated under the “Integrated Strategic Framework” developed by the United Nations, and the reconstruction plan presented by the Haitian Government.^⁴ The 2011 Consolidated Appeal, therefore, is designed to address immediate humanitarian needs, both to alleviate suffering and to create an environment more conducive for reconstruction efforts to proceed.
Summary of Strategic Objectives for 2011 (12-month period)

Creating Durable Conditions for Return

To contribute to the creation of favourable conditions in the return areas, particularly in terms of community development, and to search for sustainable solutions to allow the reintegration of displaced people there.

Enhance food security in rural areas.
Restoration of livelihoods – create temporary employment.
Skill training, provision of startup tool kit and capital.
Support to small entrepreneurs directly affected by the earthquake.
Socio-economic reintegration activities – initially debris removal and recycling.
Support basic community services.

Maintaining Humanitarian Aid

To continue meeting humanitarian needs in the affected areas and in the camps for vulnerable groups.

Protection – gender-based violence (GBV), child protection activities.
Nutrition – treatment of moderate and severe acute malnutrition.
Food assistance for vulnerable people.
Non-food items (NFIs) for displaced population.
Cash/food-for-work (FFW) activities.
Support to non-camp communities.
Enhance access to basic services for affected population, with a focus on vulnerable groups.

Enhancing Disaster Preparedness and Contingency Planning

To put in place disaster risk reduction methods and contingency plans to reduce the impact of disasters.

Support authorities in developing a multi-risk contingency plan.
Improve epidemiological surveillance (e.g. cholera outbreaks).
Maintain pre-positioning of food and non-food items (NFIs).
Support risk reduction through implementation of erosion and drainage activities.

Capacity-Building for Government and Local Communities

To strengthen the capacity of public institutions and community structures to ensure access to basic social services, in particular in the directly and indirectly affected areas.

Institutional capacity-building.
Training, data management.
Camp management, protection of civilians.
HIV prevention, care, support and treatment.

Basic humanitarian and development indicators for Haiti
Demographic	Population	9.88 million people (source: World Development Indicators database 2008)
Population Movements	Internally displaced people	1.3 million
Economic Status	Gross national income per capita	$660 (source: World Bank: Key Development Data and Statistics 2008)
Economic Status	Percentage of population living on less than $1.25 per day	54.9% for the years 2000-2007 (Source: United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report [HDR] 2009)
Health	Adult mortality (2007)	323/1,000: male 233/1,000: female (Source: World Health Statistics 2009)
	Maternal mortality	670/100,000 live births (UNICEF: Childinfo statistical tables)
	Under-five mortality (2007)	79/1,000: male 73/1,000: female (source: World Health Statistics 2009)
	Life expectancy at birth (2007)	53: male 55: female (source: World Health Statistics 2009)
	Number of health workforce (MD + nurse + midwife) per 10,000 population	4/10,000 in 2000 (source: World Health Statistics 2009)
HIV/AIDS	Adult (aged 15-49) HIV/AIDS prevalence	2.2% (2007)
Food Security	Food security Indicator	5.4 million people undernourished (FAO State of Food Insecurity 2009) 3.3 million food-insecure people (Emergency Food Security Assessment II, August 2010, FAO/WFP]
Nutrition	Prevalence of under-weight in children under 5	22.2% (National Demographic and Health Survey, 2005-06)
Nutrition	Prevalence of under-nourishment in total population	50% (FAO statistics: prevalence under nourishment 2004-06)
WASH	Proportion of population with access to improved drinking water coverage	Urban – 71%, rural – 55%; overall: 63% (Joint Monitoring Project 2008, UNICEF/WHO based on 2008 figures)
WASH	Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation coverage	Urban: 29%, rural: 10%, overall: 17% - (Joint Monitoring Project 2008, UNICEF/WHO based on 2006 figures)
Other vulnerability indices	ECHO Vulnerability and Crisis Index Score (pre-earthquake)	V: 2, C: 1.81 (out of scale 0-3, 3 being most severe) (Source: ECHO Global Needs Analysis 2008-2009)
	United Nations Development Programme Human Development Index Score	0.532: 149^th of 182 countries (“medium human development”)
	United Nations Development Programme Gender Empowerment Measure	149^th out of 182 countries

Table I: Summary of requirements (grouped by cluster)

Consolidated Appeal for Haiti 2011 as of 15 November 2010 http://fts.unocha.org
Compiled by OCHA on the basis of information provided by appealing organizations.
Cluster	Requirements ($)
AGRICULTURE	43,087,517
CAMP COORDINATION AND CAMP MANAGEMENT (CCCM)	92,960,791
COORDINATION AND SUPPORT SERVICES	10,235,233
EARLY RECOVERY	115,114,021
EDUCATION	32,898,882
FOOD AID	101,987,574
HEALTH	135,647,361
LOGISTICS	24,800,000
NUTRITION	26,665,608
PROTECTION	60,751,529
SHELTER AND NON-FOOD ITEMS	91,835,715
WATER, SANITATION AND HYGIENE	170,976,975
Grand Total	906,961,206

Table II: Summary of requirements (grouped by priority)

Consolidated Appeal for Haiti 2011 as of 15 November 2010 http://fts.unocha.org
Compiled by OCHA on the basis of information provided by appealing organizations.
Priority	Requirements ($)
HIGH	840,558,647
MEDIUM	66,402,559
Grand Total	906,961,206

Table III: Summary of requirements (grouped by appealing organization)

Consolidated Appeal for Haiti 2011

as of 15 November 2010

http://fts.unocha.org

Compiled by OCHA on the basis of information provided by appealing organizations.

Appealing Organization	Requirements ($)
ACAT	429,705
ACF	18,007,000
ACTED	17,172,350
AHV	3,540,818
AMECON 2000	1,057,580
American Institutes for Research	255,065
AMI	269,775
AN	516,500
ARC	7,957,534
ARI	3,387,188
ASA	2,174,866
ASB	1,740,343
AVSI	5,996,400
BRAC	418,816
CARE USA	11,719,212
Caritas Austria	106,461
CECOSIDA	255,000
CESVI	1,450,000
COOPI	2,677,175
CW	14,923,786
Deep Springs International	1,319,000
DWHH	3,304,057
Entrepreneurs du Monde	695,000
EPER Lausanne	1,250,000
FAO	27,660,000
FAU	1,324,350
FESFORDH	701,301
FH	8,610,656
FHED-INC	5,213,600
FIDEH	720,000
Finnchurchaid	1,920,000
Floresta	2,004,989
France RC	1,571,450
FTC	2,689,863
GOAL	174,120
GRUEEDH	104,390
GVC	3,160,000
Haiti Participative	2,323,407
Heartland	2,936,027
HelpAge International	2,769,000
HI	672,250
HU	1,728,927
HWA	986,000
IEDA Relief	6,058,043
ILO	8,056,000
IMAT	477,000
Inter Aide	33,300
International Action	1,000,000
Internews	193,282
IOM	141,772,703
IRC	2,161,198
IRD	8,770,250
IRW	558,797
J/P HRO	475,500
LFA	56,604
MAEC	879,792
MARCH	1,988,110
MDM Argentina	550,000
MDM Canada	1,908,148
MDM France	5,270,880
MDM Suisse	1,005,058
Mercy Corps	2,305,853
MERLIN	4,318,738
MHDR	587,400
MMRC	40,000
MS	700,000
NCA	4,787,300
OCHA	9,144,551
OEDH	695,000
OHCHR	1,190,691
OI	336,490
OXFAM GB	5,600,000
OXFAM Quebec	2,065,000
PADIH	185,000
PAH	1,940,980
PESADEV	982,955
PK	285,000
PU	6,236,600
RI	343,971
Samaritan's Purse	37,100,215
Saúde em Português	1,617,000
SC	18,028,942
SOIL	3,288,775
Solidarités	13,034,934
TEARFUND	10,459,982
Terre Des Hommes	3,180,395
Un Techo Para Mi Pais	4,500,000
UNDP	17,155,000
UNDSS	897,400
UNESCO	1,758,000
UNFPA	27,972,000
UN-HABITAT	8,655,000
UNHCR	5,982,458
UNICEF	124,773,840
UNOPS	44,385,269
URAMEL	1,323,591
URBATEX	1,841,125
USCRI	1,000,000
WFP	120,107,574
WHO	40,148,647
WVI	28,896,904
Grand Total	906,961,206

2. 2010 IN REVIEW

2.1 The Context

A number of events may have a direct impact on the humanitarian landscape for 2011, including in particular:

land tenure issues and a lack of political will to tackle the need for reform.
presidential and parliamentary elections.
prolonged displacement in camps, which exacerbates health and protection risks while heightening social tensions between communities.
the slow pace of transition and reconstruction programmes.

During 2010, humanitarian actors focused their efforts on responding to the massive emergency situation caused by the earthquake, which also eroded the capacity of the local government. The humanitarian community, organized into clusters, established a significant number of emergency measures to meet the strategic objectives of the Flash Appeal 2010. But despite the effort made in 2010 to address Haiti's massive needs, the necessity of humanitarian assistance is expected to continue in 2011. More than 1.3 million of people remain displaced, spread across 1,354 settlement sites, or camps.

In general, the humanitarian response has been effective at providing emergency aid to the displaced and extremely vulnerable in earthquake-affected areas. However, there are new challenges that have emerged, most due to the slow pace of reconstruction, Haiti’s uncertain political situation, and the increased insecurity and vulnerability brought about by a prolonged displacement crisis.
The international community has pledged about $5.3 billion for reconstruction and transition programmes, about $1.5 billion from the United States (US). However, so far, very little has been disbursed to key issues like rubble removal, which is necessary to eliminate hazard and give people space to set up temporary or permanent dwellings, depending on urban plans for reconstruction. With slow progress in several key areas of early recovery (ER) such as physical reconstruction and economic development, it is very difficult for humanitarian organizations to create conditions that will encourage people to leave camps and resettle or return to their homes.
It is also important to note that aid has been concentrated in the camps, while surrounding rural areas have received less assistance. While not necessarily constituting a pull factor drawing people to camps which, after all, are overcrowded and insecure, this lack of recovery and “de-concentration” of services may be inhibiting the return of people to their places of origin. Some who have wanted to return to their villages have been deterred by the lack of economic activity there, and chosen to remain in or near urban areas, where they might have access to temporary employment and to humanitarian aid. Strategies for encouraging return in 2011 therefore need serious examination.
A particular emerging problem is the issue of land tenure. Approximately 60% of Haiti's displaced people were not landowners before the earthquake, but were living in rented facilities. Most of the people now living in camps do not own land, which creates a problem. They are not in a condition to rent houses, and most of the housing affordable to the very poor was destroyed during the earthquake. Nine months after the earthquake, the Government has made little progress towards addressing land allocation issues. Some camps are considered at high risk for flooding and the people living there need to be relocated urgently. With presidential and parliamentary elections at the end of November, it seems the Government has so far been unwilling to offend constituents by engaging in land allocation programmes. Aid organizations are prepared to support the relocation of internally displaced people (IDPs) residing in high-risk camps.
As another example, humanitarian organizations have secured funding for about 115,000 temporary shelters. However, distribution of these shelters has been delayed, because Haitians who do not own land have nowhere to set them up.
Delivery of aid has also been a problem: during 2010, many containers were left at the port awaiting government clearance for extended periods. Supporting the Governments’ efforts to ensure the elimination of bureaucratic impediments and release of humanitarian aid in a timely manner is of paramount importance.
Furthermore, the charged environment surrounding the recent elections is both a complicating factor and an opportunity, as the election process has the potential to raise critical issues to the forefront of the debate – while the outcome will have a substantial effect on the aid process in 2011. Security considerations in the aftermath of 28 November are also of critical concern.
Protection issues inside and surrounding the larger displacement camps remain a concern. Chief among these are reported cases of sexual violence and rape. To mitigate the insecurity, the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) has posted peacekeeping forces in six camps on a permanent basis, and has established regular patrols of 60 other camps.
Children have also faced an elevated risk of violence, exploitation (both of which come with increased risk of HIV transmission), and abuse such as trafficking in the post-earthquake environment. Children (including adolescents and adolescent girls in particular) in camps are at particular risk but concerns remain for street children, children in institutions, and restaveks (children in domestic servitude). Positively, the earthquake resulted in an influx of child protection (CP) actors committed to strengthening existing systems – particularly those focused on supporting separated children and expanding community-based child protection.
The shortage of organizations for camp management and coordination has been a consistent challenge, and has meant some camps are underserved for a variety of social services including protection.
Finally, as the crisis continues, there is a palpable decrease in public goodwill towards the displaced in many areas. With time, people are beginning to resent the presence of sprawling displacement camps and hoping to reclaim spaces for public, commercial or private use. This has consequences, one prominent one being the forced eviction of displaced people from public and private land in urban settings. Immediately after the disaster, there was a sense of shared experience as all sectors of society were victims of the crises. Now, however, there is a growing divide between those who have the personal means to recover and those that are failing to get back on their feet. Coupled with the lack of land allocated for relocation or temporary shelters, and the slow state of recovery, this is a problematic trend which poses substantial worries for the future.

2.2 Humanitarian Achievements and Lessons Learned

Achievements during 2010 in brief:

at least five litres of potable water were distributed or made available daily to about 1.1 million people.
4.3 million people received a food rations.
1.5 million people received emergency shelters.
2.1 million people received non-food items (NFIs).
11,000 latrines were installed and maintained; de-sludging operation continues
90% of all displaced people in Port-au-Prince (PAP) had access to basic health services
116,000 people benefited from short-term employment
malnutrition did not reach emergency levels and more than 11,000 children received treatment for severe acute malnutrition
4,372 separated children registered and 1,101 reunified with their families or primary caregivers (some 40% were separated prior to the earthquake)

Based on the basic humanitarian principles of accountability, predictability and complementarity, the aid community should:

organize activities around the four strategic objectives for 2011.
improve coordination at national and field level.
create or improve existing monitoring systems, based on cluster indicators.
support disaster risk reduction (DRR) in a country prone to recurrent natural disasters.

Strategic objectives and achievements in 2010

2010 Haiti Humanitarian Appeal Strategic Objectives and Achievements
Indicator	Achieved by December 2010
Strategic Objective 1: Provide the full needed range of humanitarian support for at least 1,200,000 earthquake-affected people who need shelter and other time-critical life-saving actions, especially in water/sanitation/hygiene, health care, NFI, food aid, nutritional support, education and protection, emphasizing the key linkages among these sectors
Overall Target: At least 1,200,000 earthquake-affected people in Haiti and in the Dominican Republic have access to safe drinking water and sanitation, shelter, primary healthcare, nutrition support and regular and adequate food.
Number of household NFIs distributed.	Over 2.1 million household NFIs and toolkits have been distributed of a total target of approximately three million.
Number of households receiving waterproof cover within three months (estimated numbers of families affected: 302,977).	350,466 households received emergency shelter.
Transitional shelter provided as 31 December 2010 (target 123,350).	1,783 T-shelters built. 78% of the 123,350 needed transitional shelters have already been funded.
Percentage of priority spontaneous sites with camp management or camp committee in place.	From the 21 spontaneous 95% have camp management agencies (CMA) in place. 54% of all large camps have camp management in place.^⁵ Coverage of population (IDPs in camps) 67%.
Affected population (1.2 million) have access to 15 litres of safe drinking water per person and per day.	At least five litres of safe water per person per day have been delivered through water trucking to 1.1 million people.
Sanitation coverage is improved from 1:198 (across all sites) to 1:50 in large settlement sites and segregated by sex (11,000 toilets to be constructed in three months).	Sanitation coverage 1:200 in all sites.
Campsites of over 5,000 people covered by either mobile or fixed medical services.	40% of campsites covered by either mobile or fixed services.
At least 1.9 million (1.5 million in camps + 600,000 with host communities) people receive food rations.	4,309,987 people received food rations.
550,000 children 6-59 and pregnant and lactating. women receive blanket supplementary feeding product.	550,000 children 6-59 and pregnant and lactating women (PLW) received blanket supplementary feeding product.
Number of earthquake-damaged/destroyed schools cleared of debris (target for 2010: 250).	176 schools cleared of debris.
Number of children benefitting from temporary learning space (target for 2010: 850,000).	194,893 benefitting from temporary learning spaces.
Number of child-friendly spaces (CFS) (target for 2010: 350).	350 CFS established and managed by 41 organizations reaching 80,300 children and adolescents.
Number of children who benefit from psycho-social activities (target for 2010: 350,000). Separated children are registered and can access family tracing services.	55,000 children benefit from psycho-social activities. 4,372 separated children registered and 1,101 reunified with their families or primary caregivers (some 40% were separated prior to the earthquake).
Number of women-friendly community centres established.	Number of centres cannot be evaluated to date.
Numhber of children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) receive timely and quality care.	10,000 children 0-59 months suffering from SAM treated timely and with quality (30% of all SAM Haitian children)

Indicator	Achieved Dec-2010
Strategic Objective 2: Re-establish existing or establish new (temporary, though taking advantage of opportunities for sustainability) physical and social infrastructure and services for approximately three million earthquake-affected people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, including health, food security, economic livelihoods support, education, community spaces and community groups.
Overall Target: More than 500,000 people (40% women) from affected communities are provided with short-term employment opportunities, safety nets, or grants opportunities over a 12-month period, indirectly benefiting up to 2.5 million people.
Number of population benefiting from cash-for- work (CFW)/food for work (FFW), by gender (target for 2010: 500,000 out of which 40% are women.	Temporary jobs and source for income provided to 102,126 workers, of which some 40% women.
Number of most vulnerable affected directly and indirectly produces their food and some additional revenue over a period of 4-5 months (target for 2010: 102,000).	98,000 of the most affected produce their food and some additional revenue over a period of 4-5 months.
Tonnage of rubble removed, sorted out and recycled in a sound environmental manner.	200,000 people have been benefiting from FFW/CFW and contributed to debris clearing, garbage and refuse removal, and cleaning and rehabilitation of drainage systems.
Indicator	Achieved Dec-2010
Strategic Objective 3: Continue the strengthening of Government capacity for coordination at all levels, and the rapid scale-up of common services, including logistics, telecommunications, security, and coordination in the face of current severe conditions, plus expected worse conditions in the near future
Overall target: Effective coordination mechanisms to avoid overlaps, competition and harm between projects are in place at different levels and with all relevant stakeholders.
Comprehensive humanitarian strategy, endorsed by Humanitarian Country Team (HCT), guiding. humanitarian action in support of national priorities.	Humanitarian strategy updated in Appeal Mid-Year Review. Settlement strategy articulated and under discussion with Government of Haiti (GoH).
Established cluster coordination structure with clear government representation in 100% of the clusters.	All clusters well established with GoH participation.
Effective coordination mechanisms set up overseeing and enforcing strategic decision-making (HCT and other mechanisms coordinating government, humanitarian, military and donor response).	HCT set up within weeks, Coordination Support Committee established to oversee and enforce strategic coordination co-chaired by the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General (DSRSG) of MINUSTAH and the GoH. Joint Operation and Tasking Centre (JOTC) established to serve humanitarian actors to seek assistance from the United Nations (UN) military and police capacities.
Agreed action plan and timeline for clusters to merge into national architecture for recovery and development.	All clusters currently engaging with GoH counterparts. ER, Agriculture, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) and Education already have good GoH participation and now based outside log base.
Comprehensive 3W database – regularly updated and Inter-agency needs assessment conducted.	3W established but incomplete. Good gap analysis for shelter. An information system identifying and displaying with sophisticated graphic gaps for all clusters is adopted by the International Computing Centre and currently under implementation. Initial inter-agency needs-assessment conducted. Further analysis recommended and the need to be determined.

Indicator	Achieved as of Mid-Year
Strategic Objective 4: Put in place preparedness, disaster risk reduction, and contingency planning (each mainstreamed throughout clusters) in anticipation of worsening conditions resulting from the imminent rainy and hurricane season and their associated risks of flooding, mudslides and storm surges.
Overall target 1: Emergency response materials pre-positioned, contingency planning exercises conducted and early warning capacities for disasters caused by hydro-meteorological hazards developed.
Overall target 2: Concerted plans and mappings of interventions owned by public authorities are prepared and implemented leading to enhanced coordination and maximized use of resources.
Overall target 3: Effective early recovery coordination mechanisms to avoid overlaps, competition and harm between projects are in place at different levels and with all kinds of stakeholders.
Practical disaster preparedness and disaster response plans agreed in the key disaster-prone areas of Jacmel, Léogâne and Gonaïves.	National response plan has been articulated. Work is now ongoing to develop local plans.
ERT operational in PaP, Jacmel, Léogâne and Gonaïves.	ERT established and already deployed in PaP.
Contingency planning for the upcoming rainy and hurricane season is completed. Number of IDPs on sites vulnerable to flooding relocated. Number of IDPs sites prepared for rainy season. Quantity of relief goods pre-positioned. An interim geo-hazard and building hazard management plan is completed and implemented.	Contingency plan developed and operational.

The following pages contain details on achievements per cluster in 2010 versus targets.

Agriculture

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
Coordination of the response in agriculture ensuring an efficient use of the resources deployed.	1.1 A common approach for food security, nutrition and livelihood interventions, through coordinated strategies discussed in the Food Security Cluster.	All cluster partners follow strategy outlined in Ministère de l’Agriculture, des Ressources Naturelles et du Développement Rural (MARNDR) and cluster strategic documents.	100% of partners following MARNDR Plan d’Investissement
	1.2 The Coordination Nationale de la Sécurité Alimentaire (National Coordination of Food Security [CNSA]) capacity to collect data at all administrative unit levels and to analyse it has been strengthened, with the departmental observatories for food security including at least one nutrition indicator in the methodology for monitoring food security.	CNSA producing regular reports on food security and nutrition per department.	80% of departmental reports produced
	1.5 Donors and other humanitarian partners are provided with timely, accurate and transparent information on food security, nutrition and livelihoods in the country. Complementarities and synergy increased and duplication or conflict avoided/limited. Level of confidence among stakeholders, partners and target groups increased. Methodologies for streamlining of processes are improved/developed in view of “pending’’ disasters.	The Agriculture Cluster houses information for all partners active in agriculture and provides weekly and ad hoc reports to partners.	80%. The cluster houses information for most partners active in agriculture and provides reports to the Government and other partners through mapping software, publishes them regularly on the cluster websites and provides them as well as other data to partners on and ad hoc basis for strategic decision-making.
Support to food security rehabilitating the food production capacity of the most vulnerable rural-affected families, while promoting the sustainable intensification of food production.	2.1 Number of most vulnerable affected directly and indirectly by the earthquake produce their food and some additional revenue over a period of 4-5 months.	200,000	142 000 – Spring Season 150 000 – Summer Season
Reduction of risks related to natural disasters creating employment and contributing to self-recovery in selected watersheds.	3.1 Number of affected displaced and host vulnerable families receive economic support that allows them to obtain food and essential goods, to rapidly restore some level of self-sufficiency.	Food security increases in communities affected by poor watershed management.	100% Food security has increased according to Famine Early Warning System reports.
	3.2 The integrated management of risks related to natural disasters is promoted in selected watersheds.	Priority watersheds* have integrated management plans * as defined by MARNDR Plan d’Investissement.	30% - Ten out of the thirty watersheds identified in the MARNDR plan as priority watersheds have integrated management plans.* *Data collection in completed at this stage

Camp Coordination and Camp Management

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
Objective 1: Provide support to the earthquake-affected displaced population and host communities by ensuring dignified and safe living conditions.	1.1 Percentage of priority spontaneous settlement sites with camp management or camp committee in place.	IDP sites over 1,000 households with at least 75% coverage by CMAs or Camp Committees.	The CMA^⁶ coverage reaches 79.46% of the households currently hosted in targeted IDP sites over 1,000 households, for a total of 78,288 households. 100% of the 45 IDP sites over 1,000 households (around 98,525 households) have either CMA or Camp Committee coverage.
Objective 2: Ensure IDPs in settlements receive effective and well-coordinated humanitarian services to meet their protection and assistance needs.	2.1 Increase in the reported number of camps covered by CMAs and other service providers.	25% increase in coverage for priority sites.	306,233 households (95% of the population), residing in 1,217 IDP sites (90% of the IDP sites) are under either CMA or Camp Committee coverage. 169,262 families in IDP sites (53% of the population) receive direct assistance from CMAs. 151,886 households (47% of the population) are frequently visited by the Camp Management Operation^⁷ teams in order to keep track of their situation. It is difficult to estimate an accurate level of services provision coverage, because there are many organizations working in the same areas, with frequent overlaps and reporting gaps.
Objective 3: Support improved conditions in camps through projects focusing on mitigating measures (i.e. management for priority camps, fire safety, DRR, information campaigns, governance issues).	3.1 Number of camps reached by projects focusing on mitigation measures.	65% of camps or spontaneous settlements are reached by related projects.	Around 44% of the IDP sites have been reached by related projects.
Objective 4: Support for a safe transition strategy to assist IDP returns to places of origin, relocations to host families, planned camps or other transitional shelter options with focus on registration, information campaigns, operational support for relocation.	4.1 Number of households that are able to relocate to one of the safe shelter strategy options.	50% increase in households able to relocate from spontaneous settlements to another safe shelter strategy option.	To date 3,559 households have been able to move to safe shelter strategy options such as planned relocation sites, host families or they returned to their homes, representing an increase of 79% from the 2000 households reported in the mid-year review of the 2010 Consolidated Appeal Process (CAP).

Coordination and Support Services

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1. Effective coordination of humanitarian response.	1.1 Comprehensive humanitarian strategy, endorsed by HCT, guiding humanitarian action in support of national priorities.	Forced Eviction, Relocation strategy finalized.	Document drafted
	1.2 Established cluster coordination structure with clear government representation in the clusters.	Education WASH Health Agriculture Nutrition CCCM	70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%
	1.5 Weekly outreach activities to different stakeholders – beneficiairies, civil society and private sector.	Regular outreach activities.	80%
2. Coordinated disaster preparedness and response.	2.1 Practical disaster preparedness and disaster response plans agreed in the key disaster-prone areas of Jacmel, Léogâne and Gonaïves.	National Contingency Plan Artibonite South and South East	Completed Completed Completed
2. Coordinated disaster preparedness and response.	2.2 ERTs operational in PaP, Jacmel, Léogâne and Goniaves.	Emergency cell at ntional Level Mitigation Task Force Assessment working group	Activated Activated Activated
3. Comprehensive strategy to ensure smooth transition to longer-term recovery in support of national priorities.	3.1 Agreed action plan and timeline for clusters to merge into national architecture for recovery and development.	Transition strategy/ exist cluster strategy	Draft
4. Strategic information management and analysis to enhance decision-making and inform strategic planning.	4.1 Comprehensive 3W database – regularly updated.	Monthly	70%
	4.2 An information system for progress tracking of the Flash Appeal indicators for all clusters established and regularly updated.	Quarterly	30%
	4.3 Inter-cluster assessments/monitoring system established.	Quarterly	30%

Early Recovery - Governance and Aid Coordination

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1 Enhance coordination for aid effectiveness and strengthen Government (national and local governments) leadership and community engagement in the reconstruction and recovery efforts.	1.1 Number of area-based multi-sector concerted actions facilitated through ER Cluster coordination and network at the national and local levels.	Between five and 10 concerted actions.	With the re-activation of the ER Cluster and the consolidation of eight working groups, concerted actions – information exchange, coordination meetings, and contributions to national strategies- are occurring on weekly basis. Strategic advice, sectoral information exchange and guidelines on ER are available to facilitate decision-making purposes. Head working groups are providing inputs for the definition of national strategies on: 1) Debris management; 2) urban and rural planning, and; 3) livelihoods and job creation.
	1.2 Percentage of target beneficiaries benefiting from advisory and coordination services provided to Government institutions and to affected and host communities via Cellule de Reflexion/Task Force, support to local governments, reconstruction support centres, and information mobile units and media.	Up to 20% of about two million people (until end 2010).	The Cluster and thematic working groups have advised and supported coordination to engage local government, reconstruction support centres, mobile information units and the media to reach between 10-20% of about two million people. More than 50 organizations, including national and international NGOs, UN agencies, donors and private sector entities participate on a regular basis in the ER Cluster and thematic working groups. Representatives from line ministries have also participate but leadership from national authorities remains a challenge.

Early Recovery – Livelihoods

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
2 Create temporary jobs that provide immediate source of income through CFW/FFW and building people’s life skills for sustainable improvement of people’s livelihoods and instigating ‘deconcentration’ of economic activities within the country’s territory.	2.1 Percentage of total target beneficiaries (2,000,000) (gender and social group disaggregated) having immediate source of income and benefit from livelihood opportunities created through CFW and FFW schemes.	10% to 20% (or between 200,000 and 400,000 people, of whom 40% women) from affected and non-affected communities.	Figures from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and World Food Programme’s (WFP) programmes indicate that, by 22 October 2010, over 200,000 workers, 40% of whom are women, have been employed since the start of the programme on 20 January. From this figure, 19,164 have been employed through joint programmes (with WFP) in five different departments (west, south-east, Artibonite, south and north-west). It is estimated that by the end of 2010, the number of beneficiaries of livelihoods opportunities will reach more than 500,000 people, taking into account other programmes, particularly the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) livelihoods programme with the GoH.
	2.2 Number of people trained have improved employability or enabled and facilitated to start micro and small businesses and enterprises.	Between 500 and 1,500 people (out of whom 40 to 50% are women and youth or people with disabilities).	More than 1,000 people have received vocational training (out of whom 40 to 50% are women and youth or people with disabilities). Additionally, large scale CFW programmes have included training to team coordinators and specialized workers. Vocational training programmes and reinforcement of national education institutions started prioritizing job training in 2010, concentrating on most essential opportunities e.g. reconstruction (block maker, carpenters, plumbers, etc.) and boosting production and manufacturing enterprises.

Early Recovery - Shelter/Housing, Basic Settlement Infrastructure and Services, and Territorial Management

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
3 Facilitate restoration of and restore social, productive and basic infrastructure and services in affected and non-affected areas to pave the way towards ‘de-concentration’ of economic activities for a more balance distribution of settlements and territorial development.	3.1 Percentage of hanging damaged buildings/building ruins demolished, rubble and accumulated debris cleared and recycled in highly populated affected areas of PAPand in Jacmel, Miragoane, Léogâne, Petit Goâve, Grand Goâve and Cabaret.	Up to 10% (Slow progress due to rainy and hurricane season + lack of heavy equipment should be taken into consideration.)	More than 5% of debris has been managed. Debris management activities, combining the use of heavy machinery with high labour intensity works are being implemented in highly populated affected areas. Projects from UN agencies, NGOs, MINUSTAH and government include collection, sorting and recycling of rubble in a sound environmental and strategic manner. Rubble initiatives have been coordinated by the Project Management Coordination Cell. Since October 2010, the Debris Management Working Group, with the support of UNDP, facilitates information exchange and coordination within the context of the ER Cluster. Partners, such as United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), support the work in an institutional capacity-building role - supporting the Ministry of Public Works (MTPTC) identify houses to be repaired or demolished.
	3.2 Number of settlement upgrading projects, including restoration of basic infrastructure and vital life-support systems, rehabilitation of houses and building shelter in affected and non-affected areas.	Three to four settlement upgrading projects in affected and non-affected areas at least started and upscaled.	Settlement upgrading projects have started in at least in five different areas including Cap Haitian, Gonaïves, Jacmel, Léogâne and PaP.

Early Recovery - Gender and environmental mainstreaming, including disaster risk management

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
4 Mainstream gender equality and environmental management, including disaster risk management in reconstruction and recovery efforts.	4.1 Number of activities implemented to mainstream gender equality in recovery and reconstruction efforts across projects and sectors.	Up to three collaborative activities and joint project proposals developed and implemented to promote and increase activities that address specific needs of people with a disability, female-headed households, youth, children and the elderly.	All projects submitted to the CAP have been gender screened (pioneers in promoting the use of gender marker). The ER Cluster has nominated a gender focal point to ensure gender mainstreaming in all activities (see cluster terms of reference [ToR] and meeting minutes). United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM) will provide technical support to the Cluster (and all cluster members) to ensure real and feasible gender equality initiatives in all recovery projects. Discussions with Handicap International (HI) are ongoing to nominate a part specialist to ensure integration of disability approach in reconstruction initiatives.
	4.2 Number of projects to mainstream environmental and disaster management in reconstruction and recovery responses.	At least three projects up and running (that include mainstreaming environmental technical assistance activities) + disaster risk mitigation contingency planning endorsed by the Government and the related operational mechanisms are put in place.	UNDP, UN Human Settlements Programme and International Labour Organization debris management projects include environmental mainstreaming in the definition of the debris removal and recycling activities. In addition to that, United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) has taken part in the Strategic Advisory Group (SAG) of the ER Cluster with the purpose of ensuring an adequate mainstreaming of environmental issues in recover initiatives. This dimension is particularly relevant in the Debris Management Working Group, were UNEP is also participating. Under the spirit of “building back better”, disaster management in reconstruction and recovery programmes are crucial pillars. ER Cluster, through the Urban and Rural Planning Working Group, is promoting the enforcement of construction codes and safe neighbourhood arrangements.

Education

Objective	Indicators	Target for 2010	Achieved to date
1 Clear debris from heavily damaged and destroyed schools to allow for the resumption of classes in temporary learning spaces.	1.1 Number of earthquake-damaged or destroyed schools cleared of debris.	250	295
	1.2 Number of children benefiting from temporary learning spaces.	850,000	270,000
	1.5 Number of school tents procured and installed.	4,000	3,675
2 Ensure the quality of emergency education services.	2.1 Number of teachers trained.	10,000	8,435
2 Ensure the quality of emergency education services.	2.2 Number of children benefiting from provision of basic learning materials.	700,000	1,002,619
3 Support the implementation of the MoE psycho-social strategy to reach all school-going children.	3.1 Number of education officials trained in psycho-social methodologies.	5,000	5,879
4 Increase access to quality early childhood development (ECD) services for children age 0-6.	4.1 Number of children benefiting from ECD services.	100,000	80,414

Emergency Telecommunications

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1 Provide emergency telecommunications and data-communication networks and services to the humanitarian community.	1.1 Emergency Telecommunications Cluster project plan prepared and approved based on initial assessment.	1	Project plan was approved and final revision will be made depending on available funds at the end of 2010.
	1.2 Number of local humanitarian organizations receiving emergency telecommunications and data-communication services.	50	80
	1.5 Local Emergency Telecommunications Cluster (ETC) Working Group established and regular meetings held.	48	43 weekly and ad hoc meetings have been held.
	1.4 Number of fully Minimum Operating Security Standard (MOSS) compliant communication centres (COMCEN) established in operational areas.	7	8
2 Provide comprehensive IT and telecommunications services for WFP and logistics operations.	2.1 Number of local humanitarian organizations included in the common networks.	30	45
3 Train staff in efficient and appropriate use of telecommunications equipment and services.	3.1 Training programmes on use of ETC services provided and number of individuals and group training programmes.	500	To date the Cluster has presented 50 courses and trained about 450 users. Additional courses will be presented based on new demands which are estimated to be 10 courses for 50 users.

Food

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1 Phase I: Meet the immediate food needs of the most vulnerable populations through the provision of ready-to-eat food.	Number of earthquake-affected food-insecure population receiving food rations. Quantity of food distributed in metric ton (MT) for earthquake-affected populations vs. planned. Quantity of commodities purchased per type of commodities.	2,000,000 Quantity for earthquake-affected: 64,700 MTs. Planned purchase of commodities (MT): cereals-139,950, pulses-37,620, veg.oil-17,662, corn-soya blend-14,000, MRE-5,400, salt-2,600, sugar-700, high-energy biscuits-6,650, supplementary plumpy-3,016, plumpy doz-1,680	4,309,987 Quantity for earthquake-affected: 52,144 MTs. Commodities purchased (MT): cereals-117,675, pulses-29,076, veg.oil-8,670, corn-soya blend-15,105, MRE-4,277, salt-1,794, sugar-1,350, high-energy biscuits-5,059, supplementary plumpy-2,823, plumpy doz-1,234
2 Provide targeted food assistance to vulnerable communities in hospitals, orphanages [finished now] through mobile distributions and organized provision of school meals in primary schools and to all school-age children and nutritional support to at-risk and malnourished pregnant and lactating mothers and children under five.	Number of primary school-age children in school having receiving assistance through school feeding programmes. Number of primary school-age children in school having receiving assistance through school feeding programmes. Number of people assisted in hospitals. Number of people assisted in orphanages. Number of children under five, pregnant and lactating mothers receiving blanket supplementary feeding ration. Number of children under five, pregnant and lactating mothers receiving treatment supplementary feeding.	School-age children: 1,100,000 Hospital and orphanages: 120,000 Blanket and treatment: 655,005	School-age children: 940,226 Hospitals and orphanages: 76,051 Blanket and treatment: 552,586
3 Move to food and CFW activities.	Number of people benefiting from FFW.	700,000	500,000

Health

Objective

Indicators

2010 Target

Achieved to date

1 Effective coordination of the Health Cluster response, needs and disaster risk assessment, monitoring and evaluation, under the authority of the National Health Authority.

1.1 Ensure mapping and updating of activities of implementing agencies.

Updated database

Health Cluster coordination has been in place and by sub-groups as mobile clinics, hospitals, disability and rehabilitation, disease surveillance, reproductive health, mental health and psycho-social support. Outside PaP, there are two sub-clusters in Jacmel and Léogâne. Database of activities of partners has been updated in June and September.

2 Ensure outbreak control and disease surveillance.

2.1 Sentinel sites reporting rate on communicable diseases occurrence.

60%

60%

2.2 Vaccines coverage (measles and rubella (MR), diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus (DPT) diphtheria and tetanus (DT) during immunization campaigns in affected area.

90%

80% during the first round. The two rounds of vaccines coverage (MR, DPT, DT) during the immunization campaign in affected areas have been implemented.

2.3 Percentage of targeted families (in temporary settlements) provided with a mosquito net target 95%.

95%

n/a

3 Ensure adequate water supply and environmental health.

3.1 Percentage of public hospitals with water quality test results that reach guidelines values 80% of the time.

60%

n/a

3.2 Percentage of public hospitals with a comprehensive health-care waste management strategy defined.

60%

n/a

4 Re-activation of basic health-care services for a more integrated health system base in primary health care (PHC).

4.1 Percentage of public network hospitals providing basic health services, as recommended by World Health Organization (WHO).

100%

n/a

4.2 Campsites of >5,000 people covered by either fixed or mobile services.

60%

40%

4.3 Proportion of institutional deliveries.

30%

n/a

4.4 Percentage of health services with clinical management of rape supervisors + emergency contraception + post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) services available.

100%

n/a

5 Effective treatment and rehabilitation of injured patients

5.1 Percentage of people with physical impairment due to the earthquake who have had access to rehabilitation services.

60%

n/a

6 Ensure availability of essential drugs and medical supplies.

6.1 Number of public hospitals with most critical drugs and medical supplies on hand (based on established list) based on on-site assessments.

100%

n/a

6.2 Value of medicines and medical supplies distributed.

Over $2,000,000

n/a

6.3 Percentage of hospitals and departmental depots that meet international standards of good drug management.

n/a

n/a

Logistics

Objective	Indicators (with targets)	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1 Continue to provide common logistics services to support the humanitarian community’s response.	1.1 Number of storage facilities made available to the humanitarian community.	6	6
	1.2 Number of logistics hubs made available to the humanitarian community.	4	4
	1.5 Number of trucks made available countrywide to the humanitarian community.	70	70
	1.4 Provision of sea assets to the humanitarian community.	1	1
2 Enhance coordination, predictability, timeliness and efficiency of the emergency logistics response under the cluster approach.	2.1 Number of coordination meetings held.	45	50
	2.2 Number of maps published.	27	42
	2.3 Establishment and participation in the Joint Operation Tasking Centre(JOTC) to coordinate UN agencies, Department of Peace Keeping Operation , NGOs and military actors’ operations.	1	1
3 Support the humanitarian community to carry out their role by providing operational support equipment and facilities.	3.1 Number of workshops rehabilitated and/or built to support the deployment of the fleet of trucks operating in Haiti.	4	4
	3.2 Number of accommodation made available to humanitarian workers.	450	450
	3.3 Numbers of offices space made available to the humanitarian community.	220	220
4 Support the humanitarian community and nationals authorities by providing support to contingency planning for the cyclone season.	4.1 Number of assessment missions conducted in the frame of contingency planning.	8	15
	4.2 Number of advanced prepositioning bases for logistics support (trucks, mobile storage tents, telecom equipment, prefab offices).	5	9
	4.3 Number of joint simulation emergency exercises held.	4	3
	4.4 Number of storage facilities made available to the humanitarian community for pre-positioning needs.	4	4

Nutrition

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1 Prevent mortality and morbidity associated with malnutrition.	1.1 5,625 severely malnourished children are admitted into the appropriate selective feeding centre (projected incidence 1.5% and coverage of 50%).	5625	Cumulative March-September 167% (9197)
	1.2 15,750 moderately malnourished children admitted into the appropriate selective feeding programme.	78,750	September 101%
	1.5 550,000 children 6-59 months and PLWreceive blanket supplementary feeding products.	100%	September 74%
2 Improve infant and young child feeding practices and outcomes.	2.1 Ensure there are adequate Points de Conseil de Nutrition pour les Bébés (PCNB) functioning according to the strategy (200- will revise target to 100 as needs evolve).	100	95
	2.2 Support partners and work through the cluster to monitor and prevent breaches of the International Code of Marketing of Breast milk Substitutes. Donations of powdered milk and/or other breast milk substitutes are prevented through engagement with other clusters and the Government (Direction de la Protection Civile [DPC])	No fixed target	25 breast milk donations intercepted.
3 Prevent micronutrient deficiencies.	3.1 Ensure that 144,000 children 6-59 months receive vitamin A capsules during the vaccination campaigns.	100% coverage in November	Activity ongoing
3 Prevent micronutrient deficiencies.	3.2 Ensure that 550,000 children 6-59 months and PLW receive either lipid-based nutrient spread, micronutrient powders (sprinkles) or multiple micronutrient capsules during the third round of the blanket feeding distribution.	550,000 beneficiaries	87%
4 Ensure that timely and accurate information is available to monitor nutritional trends.	4.1 Conduct nutrition surveys in disaster-affected areas.	100% of coverage for disaster-affected areas	65%
	4.2 Establish sentinel sites to monitor monthly trends.	Establishment of sentinel sites and collection of data.	Surveillance will include National Survey. Programmatic data and active screening data instead.
	4.3 Establish feeding centre database to monitor monthly selective feeding centre admissions and performance indicators.	Establishment and maintenance of database.	Completed
	4.4 Establish infant and young child feeding monthly reporting for partners to monitor trends.	Establishment and maintenance of database.	Completed
5 Improve and protect household food security through livelihood initiatives.	Define nutritionally vulnerable households and target with conditional cash transfers and fresh-food vouchers to promote food security and micro-credit linked with alternative fuel use (female-headed households, border households, etc.).	Establishment of support mechanism in collaboration with Food Aid and Agriculture Clusters.	No progress to date but planned for Common Humanitarian Action Plan (CHAP) 2011.

Protection

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1 Identify gaps in the protection of earthquake-affected people to enhance protection responses. Focus on gaps in responses related to durable solutions for IDPs, particularly in the context of the Safe Shelter Strategy.	1.1 4 Participatory assessments on protection of IDPs in camps and in host families completed.	100%	50%
	1.2 12 situation or thematic reports generated and disseminated by the Protection Cluster, including on the issue of evacuation, relocation and durable solutions.	100%	75%
	1.3 Protection issues monitored in informal and formal settlements, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups.	70%	80%
	1.4 Recommendations and action points to relevant national and international actors on protection issues are made.	70%	80%
4 Strengthen the response of communities and relevant actors including the GoH, and national and international organizations to protection challenges, in particular the protection of vulnerable groups.	2.1 12 trainings on protection of IDPs undertaken for camp managers, human rights monitors and national authorities.	80%	75%
	2.2 Vulnerable individuals and groups, in particular disabled, old people, people with mental disorders and individuals with no support, have access to protection and assistance.	80%	45%
	2.3 85 quick-impact projects implemented and relief protection items benefiting 400,000 IDPs in host communities and camps, in particular the most vulnerable people.	100%	68%
	2.4 At least three national institutions’ (Office de la Protection du Citoyen [OPC]), DPC, Ministry of Justice (MoJ) capacity to respond to protection issues, particularly in the context of reconstruction, return and local integration, are reinforced through the provision of material support and human resources.	80%	75%
5 Advocate rights-based interventions for the protection of affected communities by setting policies and strategies.	3.1 Policy and strategy papers on thematic protection issues are drafted.	70%	75%
	3.2 Information on key protection issues is provided to affected populations, targeting in particular people with special needs.	90%	60%

Protection Sub-Cluster: Child Protection

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1 Prevent and respond to separated and unaccompanied children.	Number of active sub-cluster members.	60	72
	Number of caseworkers trained to register, trace and follow up with separated children.	250	140
	Number of children registered total.	5,000	4,635
	Number of families actively traced.	5,000	1,135
	Number of families currently in mediation.	1,500	288
	Number of child trafficking victims reunified with their families through the Family Tracing and Reunification Programme.	350	N/A
	Percentage of children who have been reunified with their families.	30%	25%
2 Strengthen the GoH’s capacity to protect children from violence, trafficking, exploitation, abuse and neglect.	GoH CP strategy (yes/no).	Yes	Yes
	Number of child trafficking victims intercepted and provided with necessary support (Brigades for Protection of Minors [BPM]).	500	2,800 (suspected) 21 proofed
	Number of Institute de Bien-Être Social et Recherche (IBESR) offices set up and fully operational.	5	5
	Number of IBESR staff trained on temporary care and psycho-social support.	140	140
	Number of BPM antennae (operational sites).	5	5
	Number of BPM agents in border areas.	8	8
	Number of BPM staff trained on temporary care and psycho-social support.	50	72
3 Strengthen and support for community-based mechanisms for CP, including creation and support for community-based CP focal points and networks, and creation and implementation of CFS with psycho-social support for children and their caregivers.	Number of child-friendly spaces.	350	437
	Number of children who benefit from psycho-social activities.	350,000	105,000
	Functional referral network in place (yes/no).	Yes	Yes
	Number of protection committees established.	175	88
	Number of protection cases identified and referred to relevant authorities/services.	200	N/A
	Number of women and girls assisted with relevant services.	200	N/A
	Number of women's centres established.	5	N/A
	Number of women and girls trained on life-skills issues.	40,000	50,000
	Number of trainings conducted with relevant staff working in CFS on GBV.	150	100

Protection Sub-Cluster: Prevention of and Response to Gender-Based Violence

Objective	Indicators	Target 2010	Achieved to date
1 Preventing GBV through work with security and other sectors.	1.1 Training conducted for camp management, and other relevant actors on GBV prevention for displaced people.	Three trainings to be conducted.	Three trainings conducted.
	1.2 NFI distributed to protect women and girls from GBV, exploitation and abuse.	20,000 flash lights distributed. 50,000 dignity kits.	16,750 flash lights distributed. 100 solar lamps installed in over 30 camps 60,000 dignity kits distributed, including 20,000 as part of cholera response.
	1.3 Programmes funded and implemented for vocational trainings and livelihoods for vulnerable women and girls.	Minimum of five livelihood vocational training programmes are available for women and girls.	Livelihood and vocational training for girls and women are part of the ER Cluster strategy.
	1.4 GBV prevention campaigns are carried out across the country (in PaP and outside).	Six messages aired on all national radios.	Continuous prevention campaigns taking place across the country. GBV prevention song competition on national radio carried out.
	1.5 Participation in patrols and security assessments to ensure that women and girls are receiving adequate protection.	Participation in two Joint security assessments and daylight patrols in camps.	Participation in two joint security assessments and patrols.
2 Ensuring women and girl survivors of GBV have access to essential services.	2.1 Reference information is communicated to ensure referrals can be made for survivors.	50,000 referrals cards distributed.	Over 50,000 referral cards distributed.
	2.2 Number of case managers trained.	100 direct service providers trained on case management.	150 Cases managers trained through grass root organizations.
	2.3 Number of humanitarian service providers trained on adequate response to GBV survivors.	Minimum 100 humanitarian actors trained on adequate response to GBV survivors.	Over 200 humanitarian actors trained on adequate response to GBV survivors.
	2.4 GBV response messages aired across the country.	Creation of six new GBV messages	Continuous messaging on GBV on National radios.
3 Re-establishing monitoring, reporting and coordination mechanisms.	3.1 Weekly coordination meetings are conducted with relevant actors on issues of GBV response and prevention. 3.1 Ensure mapping and updated activities nationwide.	Minimum of 25 meetings conducted. Updated mapping available.	At least 25 bi-weekly meeting conducted as the GBV Sub-Cluster, referral group and communications group. Updated mapping available.
	3.2 Existence of GBV Sub-Cluster Working Groups at the sub-national level (nine departments + PaP).	Six sub-national working groups established.	Three sub-national working groups established in areas immediately affected by earthquake.
	3.3 Number of service-providing agencies trained in the use of the national form for data collection.	50 service providing agencies trained on data sharing protocols and use of the national form for data collection.	50 services providers trained on the national tools and protocols, the training on the national form on data collection has been postponed until the results of the mapping exercise.
	3.4 National form for data collection revised to be aligned with international good practice.	Minimum of two meetings held to discuss challenges related to utilizing the national form.	One meeting was held however it was decided that the revision of the national form was not a priority at this stage.
	3.5 Number of service providers who are part of the GBV Sub-Cluster using the national form for data collection for reporting cases.	50 direct service providing agencies are actively engaged trained on the national form.	This activity has been postponed until the results of the mapping exercise in order to identify key partners to be trained.

Shelter and Non-Food Items

Objective	Indicators	2010 Target	Achieved to date
1 Emergency shelter within three months, before the hurricane season.	1.1 Percentage of families receiving NFI support within three months. Estimated number of families affected 302,977.	100%	66,1%
	1.2 Percentage of families receiving waterproof cover within three months. Estimated number of families affected 302,977.	100%	159%
	1.5 Percentage of families whose houses have been assessed for seismic, rain and hurricane risk – 188,383 homes destroyed or damaged.^⁸	100%	About 90%
2 Full transitional shelter within the next 12 months.	2.1 Percentage of families receiving support with hurricane-resistant shelter before 2011. Current target, 123,350 transitional shelters by 1 June 2011.	100%	19,089 units equals 15,5 %
	2.2 Transitional shelter targeting criteria developed and implemented.	Fully reached	reached
	2.3 Earthquake-affected families have access to accurate public information on shelter-related hazards - 188,383 homes destroyed or damaged.^⁹	100%	Not exactly known
3 Detailed gathering of all transitional shelter needs in the next six months, adopting a zoned structure with shelter actors assessing and sharing the needs in zones they work, avoiding gaps and duplication.	3.1 Clear mapping of areas where shelter actors are implementing / assessing.	100%	95%
	3.2 Coordination meetings with coordination hubs operating in PaP, Léogâne, Petit-Goâve and Jacmel.	Fully reached	reached
	3.3 Shelter needs assessed in all key earthquake-affected areas.	100%	reached

WASH

Objective

Indicators

2010 Target

Achieved to date

1 Ensure equitable access to safe drinking water for displaced people, directly or indirectly affected by the earthquake, to cluster-defined standards.

1.1 Percentage of people with access to 10 litres/person/day of safe water.

10 litre/person/day

Six litre/person/day

1.2 Percentage of sites where trucked water distribution points meet national water quality standards (chlorine residual only).

100%

66% in Port -au -Prince (PaP) and 35% in rural areas

2 Ensure adequate excreta disposal facilities for all earthquake-affected populations according to and appropriate for the type of settlement site so that no excreta is visible in site surroundings and no queues.

2.1 Number of people per functioning latrine.

1:50

1:113

2.2 Number of people per functioning shower/bathing space.

1:50

1:245

3 Contribute to reducing the risk of WASH-related diseases among earthquake-affected populations by mobilizing them to use provided water, sanitation and hygiene facilities effectively for better hygiene and dignity.

3.1 Percentage of sites with adequate numbers of functioning hand-washing stations (soap and water present).

80%

n/a

3.2 Percentage of men, women and children, including people with disabilities, who can demonstrate knowledge of key hygiene practices.

90%

60%

3.3 Percentage of sites with ongoing hygiene promotion activities using trained promoters.

80%

29%-44% of sites, however approx. 60% of population

2.3 Funding Review

After the devastating earthquake of 12 January 2010, the humanitarian community launched a Flash Appeal on 15 January, requesting a total of $562 million, which was later adjusted to $577 million. The donor response to this initial appeal was very rapid and generous. As of 16 February, the appeal was already 100% funded, although funds were not evenly allocated across clusters. On 18 February 2010, the appeal requirements were revised upwards to $1.4 billion, highlighting key areas of concern such as shelter and sanitation, rubble removal, camp management, CFW, protection and restoring livelihoods.
During the Mid-Year Review the appeal was once again revised to update critical response gaps and funding. Old and new projects were screened through a three-phase approach that included review by the clusters, Inter-Agency Committee and Humanitarian Coordinator (HC). The appeal requirements were slightly increased to $1.5 billion of which 72% has been funded.

Haiti Revised Humanitarian Appeal (January - December 2010): Requirements and funding to date per cluster
Cluster	Original requirements	Revised requirements	Funding	Unmet requirements	% Covered	Uncommitted pledges
	($)	($)	($)	($)		($)
	A	B	E=C+D	B-E	E/B	F
AGRICULTURE	23,000,000	58,818,036	31,526,150	27,291,886	54%	-
CAMP COORDINATION AND CAMP MANAGEMENT	1,300,000	78,779,460	36,196,220	42,583,240	46%	-
COORDINATION AND SUPPORT SERVICES	10,487,579	21,861,148	21,998,478	- 137,330	101%	-
EARLY RECOVERY	49,218,850	140,705,800	53,617,941	87,087,859	38%	-
EDUCATION	11,100,000	87,536,872	85,523,861	2,013,011	98%	-
EMERGENCY TELECOMMUNI-CATIONS	782,460	4,433,765	782,460	3,651,305	18%	-
FOOD AID	246,039,060	486,742,542	353,534,757	133,207,785	73%	2,111,614
HEALTH	33,900,000	140,320,179	103,096,178	37,224,001	73%	450,000
LOGISTICS	33,527,705	89,843,876	64,629,799	25,214,077	72%	-
NUTRITION	48,400,000	48,108,992	46,236,495	1,872,497	96%	-
PROTECTION	16,230,000	71,867,732	42,940,134	28,927,598	60%	100,000
SHELTER AND NON-FOOD ITEMS	29,250,000	162,263,354	102,276,697	59,986,657	63%	220,000
WATER, SANITATION AND HYGIENE	58,825,000	110,939,574	97,216,853	13,722,721	88%	-
CLUSTER NOT SPECIFIED	-	-	40,633,489	n/a	n/a	-
Grand Total	562,060,654	1,502,221,330	1,080,209,512	422,011,818	72%	2,881,614

Of course, a signal feature of the Haiti earthquake has been the huge funding response, the majority of which (some $2.4 billion) was not directed to projects in this 2010 action plan and appeal. Much of that was consumed by large-scale logistical operations, for example involving militaries of contributing countries. The clusters have accounted for actions funded outside the appeal as much as possible in updating their plans and funding requests; and while it may seem hard to believe that these billions of dollars of resources left any funding needs unmet, the clusters have been able to demonstrate significant gaps that could have been closed with additional resources.

3. NEEDS ANALYSIS

The CCCM Cluster is working to find a multi-sectoral response and durable solutions for IDPs. The Cluster is working in the seven communes of PaP (Carrefour, Delmas, Croix des Bouquets, Petionville, Tabarre, Cité Soleil and PaP) and the southern affected regions of Jacmel, Gressier, Léogâne, Petit Goâve and Grand Goâve.
Up to 170,854 families hosted in IDP sites (more than 53% of the total population) are receiving direct assistance from CCCM partner camp management agencies (CMAs).^¹⁰ Furthermore, in large camps (sites with more than 1,000 households) – the household coverage of dedicated CMAs increases to 72.5% in camps hosting more than 1,000 IDPs, and up to 80% in camps hosting more than 2,000 IDPs. To complement these efforts, International Organization for Migration (IOM) camp management operation (CMO) teams have been established to support CMAs. In addition, in areas where no designated CMA is present, CMO teams carry out camp management roles such as coordinating services, referring issues to relevant stakeholders, and other actions to improve conditions in camps and camp-like settlements. Both CMOs and CMAs have proven indispensible to the ongoing earthquake response, plus responses to natural disasters and cholera.
The GoH and the humanitarian community anticipate that many settlements will remain through 2011. The need to identify actors (national NGOs and international NGOs) willing to take on camp management responsibility is crucial as they provide a vital link between the displaced community, the host community, the Government and humanitarian actors, including, crucially, in the implementation of the return strategy. As the magnitude of the humanitarian situation continues to strain existing capacities in-country, continuous training, capacity-building, and camp management support remain necessary.
At the same time, the finalization and implementation of return strategies is needed to assist the affected community in transitioning into more durable solutions.
Nutrition

Some 1.8 million people were deemed to be “food-insecure” prior to the earthquake.^¹¹ Malnutrition was also prevalent – with global acute malnutrition (GAM^¹²) increased from 5% in 1995 to 7% in 2000 to 9% in 2005-2008.^¹³ In 2008-2009 it was 4.5%.^¹⁴ Based on a GAM prevalence of 4.5% and SAM prevalence of 0.8%, in the affected population aged 6-59 months prior to the emergency, there were an estimated 15,967 children with acute malnutrition, of which an estimated 2,839 with SAM. In infants under six months old, 1,549 have acute malnutrition, of whom 275 have SAM.

The rate of chronic malnutrition (stunting) has been stagnant from 2005-2008 at about 24% of children under five.^¹⁵ In the same period, prevalence of low birth weight was estimated at 25%, exclusive breastfeeding of infants less than six months old was 24% and the rate of any breastfeeding was 95%. The proportion of children aged between six and nine months receiving complementary feeding was 80%, and although no evidence exists to support this, it is likely that the quality of the diet was, and remains, poor.
Breastfeeding and complementary feeding behaviours in Haiti were disrupted in emergency-affected zones as well as feeding habits of pregnant and lactating women. It is crucial to protect the high rate of breastfeeding, as community perceptions may have been affected by increased stress post-earthquake and donations of unsolicited breast milk substitutes during the emergency response. At the same time, it is imperative to improve the rate of early and exclusive breastfeeding.
In terms of micronutrient deficiencies, around 60% of children 6-59 months and 46% of women (aged 15-49 years) are anaemic (Demographic and Health Survey / DHS 2005). Among the anaemic children, 72% are less than 24 months suffer some form of anaemia. Vitamin A supplementation coverage was less than the target coverage rate (80%) in all but two departments.^¹⁶
No nationwide survey was conducted since the earthquake of 12 January, 2010. A nutrition survey conducted in three main affected zones indicated that acute malnutrition rates remained stable, thanks to a series of multi-sectoral public health interventions including provision of water, basic sanitation and hygiene and blanket supplementary feeding. However, considering that 1.3 million people are still living in camps and many are likely to continue to do so well into 2011, it is estimated that the situation may worsen if the blanket supplementary feeding and micronutrient supplementation are phased down.
Despite the fact that the proportion of acutely malnourished children in affected areas has remained stable over the last few months, active screening activities indicate an increase in the number of children at risk of malnutrition in some settlements of PaP metropolitan area, related to the return of displaced populations from under-served rural areas to urban areas and an increase of food insecurity in the temporary settlement sites.
To address the above issues the Nutrition Cluster’s response plan continues to emphasize the continuation of provision of basic services to the population directly and indirectly affected through a facility- and community-based approach. This includes sustained prevention of micronutrient deficiencies and acute and chronic malnutrition, plus greater community integration of the strategy to improve infant and young child feeding, and renewed efforts to support livelihoods, household food security and nutrition education for the most vulnerable groups.
In order to ensure equity, the cluster will advocate adequate geographical coverage besides coverage of affected areas with high population density, in close collaboration with other clusters to achieve an inter-sectoral approach and maximize impact. The Nutrition Cluster will focus on all departments with the exception of the North East, North and North West. The target area includes an estimated total population of 7,500,000 people. Among these, priority will be given to 1,350,000 displaced people living in camps, 600,000 displaced people living in host communities and 1,050,000 people at high vulnerability due to indirect effects of the emergency.
The Education Sector continues to face a tremendous challenge to recover from the disaster. Despite an enormous demand for education among the population of Haiti, more children are out of school, compared to the already distressing figure of 50-55% during the pre-earthquake. Out of 3,978 schools that the earthquake damaged, many of them have been cleared of debris by local communities and the Education Cluster partners, yet about 32% still need debris removal. This not only hampers the efforts to establish temporary and semi-permanent facilities to reopen schools, but exposes children to dangers and fears due to proximity to buildings that need demolition. Adequate and functioning learning spaces continue to be a great need. Key issues are access, quality and governance.
Despite a call in the Haitian constitution for universal access to health care, it is estimated that roughly 40% of the population lacked access to care before the earthquake, particularly in rural areas of the country. Inaccessibility was based on both unaffordable financial services and distance from home to health facility. The earthquake inflicted a catastrophic toll on health institutions. Eight hospitals were totally destroyed, and 22 seriously damaged in the three regions most affected by the earthquake (West, Nippes, South East). In the Action Plan for National Recovery and Development of Haiti, the Government underlines the importance of rebuilding 30 of the existing 49 hospitals and related training structures in the three departments most heavily affected by the earthquake. Humanitarian and health partners have worked hard to ensure basic services are provided through field hospitals, mobile health clinics, and the creation of referral networks to functioning hospitals. The administrative infrastructure for the country was not spared, with the Ministry of Public Health and Population (MSPP) offices destroyed – killing 200 MSPP staff – and medical and nursing schools damaged. Prior to the earthquake, Haiti was experiencing a generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic with 120,000 people living with HIV/AIDS including an estimated 6,800 children under the age of 15 also carrying the virus. An initial report estimates that out of 120,000 people living with HIV, just under 70,000 live in affected areas. Prior to the quake, around 19,000 people were estimated to be on anti-retroviral treatment. The reported spike in pregnancies and in sexual violence requires that integration of HIV prevention as well as care, support and treatment into across the sectors.
A joint Ministry of Health (MoH)/ United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) nutrition survey was undertaken between April and June 2010 found that the nutritional situation of infants had not deteriorated thanks to humanitarian actions including a blanket supplementary feeding programme for pregnant and lactating mothers and children under five. Nevertheless, 6% of children are acutely malnourished and as many as 31.7% are chronically malnourished. Pregnant and lactating women (PLW) and children under five continue to remain vulnerable and in need of ongoing assistance programmes.
Almost a year after the earthquake, humanitarian needs in Haiti are still vast with approximately 1.3 million people living in camps and limited national leadership to lead the return to places of origin or the relocation of displaced families. According to preliminary estimations from the Shelter Cluster, by the end of 2011 there will be about 130,000 families still living in camps (650,000 people approximately) which indicates the significance of the humanitarian setting in Haiti for the months to come.
A follow-up Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA II) was conducted in June 2010. It was found that the prevalence of food insecurity in the areas directly affected by the earthquake had dropped from 52% in February to 39% in June. Access to livelihood activities as well as stabilization of food prices and availability in markets has contributed to this improvement. However, the prevalence of food insecurity remains well above pre-earthquake levels primarily because economic activities have still not reached levels prevailing before January 2010. There are estimated to be between 2.5 million and three million food-insecure people nationally in Haiti. Although the prevalence of food insecurity is higher in the directly affected areas than the non-directly-affected areas, there are more food-insecure people living outside the directly affected areas of the country.
The levels of food insecurity in the camps are similar to those of vulnerable people outside of the camps. In the urban camps, 39% of inhabitants are food-insecure. In rural areas, 49% face food insecurity. However camp inhabitants are at risk to future shocks as a result of their lack of household assets.
The earthquake had and continues to have a significant impact on food security, both in the directly affected areas and the non-directly-affected areas of the country. Asset loss, migration, economic impacts, and the period of increased food prices (January to March) all eroded household coping strategies and livelihoods; households have been left more food-insecure and less resilient to future shocks. In the directly affected areas, households suffered considerable asset loss as a result of the earthquake. Between February and June 2010, households recovered very few assets, indicating that their current situation is not allowing them to rebuild lives and livelihoods.
In parallel, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) conducted a Crop and Food Security Assessment mission in June and July 2010. The mission found that food production in Haiti is slowly recovering but remains significantly below the levels that existed prior to the January 2010 earthquake. Haiti’s spring harvest, compared to 2009, saw bean production drop by 17% and declines in maize, sorghum and plantain of 8%, 4% and 5%, respectively. The total import requirement in the 2010/2011 marketing year is put at 711,000 metric tons (MTs) (cereal equivalent) of which 525,000 MTs are expected to be imported commercially. This leaves an uncovered deficit of some 186,000 MTs.
Eleven months after the earthquake and despite the huge efforts made by the humanitarian community, about 1,300,000 IDPs are still living in around 1,300 scattered camps and sites in the capital, PaP, and the southern regions of Jacmel, Léogâne, Gressier, Petit Goâve and Grand Goâve.

4. THE 2011 COMMON HUMANITARIAN ACTION PLAN

4.1 Scenarios

The best-case scenario

The best-case scenario foresees an election campaign that proceeds with minimal tension, resulting in peaceful elections that create political stability. A secure government would then be in a good position to develop a clear, strategic and comprehensive plan for reconstruction and relocation of displaced people and damaged infrastructure, which focuses on providing universal access to basic services. Such a government would also be willing to work with humanitarian actors and civil society towards an overall humanitarian action plan.

In this scenario, transition projects would be at least 80% funded by international donors (an improvement over the 60-70% funding achieved in 2010). Also, the aid that is currently waiting at the ports would be unblocked. With sufficient resources, the Government and humanitarian organizations would be able to promote enough income-generating activities to recapitalize many communities, which then could re-develop basic services. With services, support and jobs available outside the camps, as many as 40% of the people now in camps might return home.
Key elements in this scenario:

Electoral campaign with minor tensions.
Peaceful elections.
Political stability.
Government positioning on strategic lines and programmes on reconstruction, relocalization, and decentralization and access to basic services and resources.
State institutions are operational.
Coordination mechanisms between state structures, humanitarian actors, and civil society are reinforced.
Recapitalization, promotion of income-generating activities.
Revitalization of basic services.
40% of families return home.
60% of people stay in camps.
Project financed up to 80%
No national disaster, such as epidemics.

The worst-case scenario

The major conditions that could precipitate a worst-case scenario would be either a second humanitarian disaster or series of disasters such as flooding, mudslides or disease outbreaks; or a contested election that leads to violence. Either situation will substantially disrupt both the humanitarian response and reconstruction, and potentially lead to violence within the camps themselves, either politically motivated or sparked by a scarcity of resources and assistance. In the disaster scenario, in particular, there would likely also be an increase in the number of people in the camps rather than a decrease, and an exodus from rural areas. The massive increase in insecurity would make aid harder to supply, and could initiate a vicious downward spiral. Rioting in the camps and the need for peacekeepers’ intervention would further deteriorate relations between international actors and the local community. There is already ill will towards the UN mission, and an increase in that sentiment could put serious challenges in the way of any aid distribution at all. Also, a fuel crisis is possible if unrest continues, since Haiti does not produce any of its own fuel. Even short of full-scale violence, such a situation could result in camps assuming a permanent or semi-permanent status as new urban slums.

The elections are a realm for a number of other potential problems, even if they do not lead to violence. An ineffective or paralysed post-electoral government could severely limit reconstruction. Worse, a new government could be actively hostile to foreign humanitarian organizations, and could allow the situation to deteriorate by holding up or blocking humanitarian assistance.

Another factor that could lead to similar results would be a substantial decrease in the aid available, because donors choose to re-direct it to other emergencies, because of a lack of funding due to the worsening economies in the US and Europe, diminished media attention, or due to corruption within the aid community. An inability to meet basic humanitarian needs, coupled with a sense of broken promises among the population, could have negative results. Other potentially disruptive factors that could lead to spiralling instability would include scenarios where the Government fails to act to address land tenure issues (described above); an increase in forced evictions in the camps, leading to rioting and UN intervention; or a situation where sustainable development strategies ignore the humanitarian aspect, leading to widespread resentment.

Key elements in this scenario:

Contested elections/ violence elections.
Extended emergency state.
Institutional and post-election paralysis.
Decisions and previous strategies rejected.
Increase in displaced people in camps and rural exodus.
IDPs rioting.
Natural disaster on affected areas: earthquakes, etc.
Serious public health issues.
Reduced humanitarian aid according to other priority countries.
Lack of leadership  end of funds.
MINUSTAH rejected.
Corruption within the international community.
Lack of communication with the population.
General increase of insecurity.
Increase in forced evictions.
Impossibility to bring aid.
Land ownership is not addressed by the Government.
Increase of slums in urban areas.
Sustainable development strategies do not take into account the humanitarian aspect.
Lack of dialogue and linkages between humanitarian actors and the Government.
No relocation/return and finances for camps especially in a natural disaster context.
Increase of cost of fuel (gasoline).
Promises not respected.
No implication of private sector.
Increase of the recession in the US constraining the Haitian diaspora from sending money to their families.

The most likely scenario

At the moment, the most likely scenario is that elections will be contested but will not lead to an immediate political crisis; however, the State will still be weak and in need of support. Hopefully, this will lead to an end of State paralysis and the un-blocking of aid supplies. Many NGOs will shift their focus from humanitarian to development aid, and will develop more experience and capacity, and will build stronger relationships with local communities. More aid will become available, and big projects will start, leading to increased visibility of the aid effort and some economic growth. This will be balanced by uncertainty, however, as media attention to the crisis continues to flag, and future donor funds and remittances remain uncertain.

However, even if development is reasonably successful, humanitarian needs will remain huge for the foreseeable future. The Government is also likely to take a tougher policy towards NGOs in the coming year. It's likely that the focus on development will reduce basic services, and lead to increased polarization of the population. The Government is likely to want to close the most visible camps, which may increase forced evictions, another destabilizing factor.
There will still be a major need for humanitarian action, and while it seems likely that some of the displaced or former displaced will adapt to the situation and benefit, the coming year will see the emergence of a small core of extremely vulnerable people who are not benefiting substantially from reconstruction. It is likely that at least 130,000 families will still be living in camps by the end of 2011. Notably, the number of pregnant women seems significantly high this year when compared to previous years, and a baby boom may further contribute to the vulnerability of some members of the population. Development may lead to increases in the price of basic commodities, which will further marginalize this population, and could lead to widespread food insecurity. The potential for sanitation problems and increased HIV/AIDS transmission is high.
Key elements in this scenario:

Election aftermath brings moderate contestation. End of “immobilisme” (slowing of Government decision-making before elections).
Cholera outbreak continues on a large scale, affecting hundreds of thousands of people and absorbing much of the energy of the Health, WASH, Logistics and CCCM Clusters.
State is still weak and needs support.
De-blocking of promised aid for the reconstruction. Start of big projects: aid visibility, and economic growth.
Reduced media attention.
Tougher policy of the Government towards NGOs.
Reduce humanitarian funds and actors versus increase in development funds and actors.
Stabilization of actors who have a better understanding of the context.
Reduced basic services and polarization of population.
Dire humanitarian needs and access to basic services (130,000 families still in camps by end of 2011).
Closing of visible camps. Risk of forced evictions.
Sanitation risks (increase in HIV/AIDS) and malnutrition.
Increase in the price of basic food products – food insecurity.
Strengthening relationship between aid organizations and communities.

Social tension linked to:

length of precarious situation.
incapacity of the international community to respond to needs.
lack of economic opportunities.
tensions in camps.
increase in insecurity in poor neighbourhoods.

There are a number of cross-cutting risk factors in all three scenarios:

Multiple risks, including food crises, natural disasters or political instability that could lead to a rapid worsening of the situation.
An increasing number of people leaving rural areas could make the situation much more difficult to handle and increase negative outcomes.
Increasing social tension linked to the long duration of difficult living conditions, to a sense that the international community has not lived up to its promises, to a lack of jobs or resources in camps, or, finally, to a sense of unfairness in the progress of development and reconstruction. Increased social tension has the potential to make life in the camps much harder and aid provision more difficult, leading to a worsening scenario.

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