Sensitivity Analysis
A sensitivity analysis examining the effect of traffic on the PW of agency costs was
performed to investigate if the flexible over CRCP composite pavement structure becomes cost
effective for vey high traffic volumes. This evaluation involved the computation of total agency
costs at different traffic volumes. ESALs ranges of 33, 67 and 135 million over the design life
were considered.
Traffic growth curves were created for the 50-year LCCA analysis period for each AADT
case. Then, the years at which rehabilitation needed to take place on the typical traffic growth
curve (i.e., approximately 67,000,000 ESALs) were shifted according to the ESALs required for
the same pavement structures to reach a maintenance or rehabilitation trigger (Table 13). The
increase in ESALs can be due to an increase in the traffic volume or an increase in the
percentage of trucks. A reconstruction was scheduled for the highest traffic alternative in year
35, except for the composite with CRCP base pavement. The present worth computations for all
the alternatives using a discount rate of 4% are summarized in Figure 14. It should be noted that
the assumed maintenance schedule for the composite with CRCP base pavement was not
changed with the increased traffic. This assumption was based on the experiences reviewed in
the literature; however, it would need to be verified experimentally before strong conclusions can
be drawn.
It can be observed that as the ESALs increase, the PW of all alternatives increase as well,
except for the composite with CRCP base which stays at a constant PW throughout. The CRCP
base composite pavement remains with a constant PW cost because of the assumption that only
periodic functional mill and replace every 10 years is required to accommodate very high
volumes of traffic; approximately 400,000,000 ESALs (U.K., 2006). The sensitivity analysis
suggests that CRCP base composite pavements have the potential to save significant agency
costs when considered for very high-volume high-priority highways (approximately 140 million
ESALs or greater).
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