Các website tham khảo chính:
http://gso.gov.vn/
http://www.imf.org/
http://www.adb.org/
http://ideas.repec.org
PHỤ LỤC
Phụ lục 1
Dữ liệu sử dụng trong mô hình
Tháng
|
OIL
|
OPGAP
|
IMP
|
CPI
|
M2
|
NEER
|
2001M01
|
25.62
|
752.0736
|
106.68
|
80.429
|
208380
|
82.79
|
2001M02
|
27.5
|
1260.227
|
107.3
|
80.765
|
209842
|
82.96
|
2001M03
|
24.5
|
2010.075
|
107.12
|
80.161
|
216185
|
78.97
|
2001M04
|
25.66
|
1577.302
|
108.79
|
79.759
|
217303
|
79.38
|
2001M05
|
28.31
|
1188.076
|
106.99
|
79.624
|
219492
|
80.36
|
2001M06
|
27.85
|
1720.554
|
106.8
|
79.624
|
226933
|
80.10
|
2001M07
|
24.61
|
1699.985
|
106.79
|
79.49
|
231263
|
81.70
|
2001M08
|
25.68
|
1741.502
|
105.31
|
79.49
|
233226
|
84.72
|
2001M09
|
25.62
|
1053.427
|
104.65
|
79.893
|
235255
|
83.55
|
2001M10
|
20.54
|
66.56683
|
103.91
|
79.759
|
239741
|
83.07
|
2001M11
|
18.8
|
79.22201
|
104.59
|
79.96
|
245194
|
83.00
|
2001M12
|
18.71
|
1640.291
|
104.53
|
80.631
|
250846
|
81.43
|
2002M01
|
19.42
|
1356.474
|
104.96
|
81.523
|
257112
|
81.65
|
2002M02
|
20.28
|
-1796.045
|
105.74
|
83.35
|
256077
|
81.62
|
2002M03
|
23.7
|
1111.51
|
105.37
|
82.64
|
256018
|
82.20
|
2002M04
|
25.73
|
1136.428
|
105.69
|
82.64
|
260442
|
84.20
|
2002M05
|
25.35
|
-863.9097
|
103.41
|
82.944
|
264989
|
86.23
|
2002M06
|
24.08
|
1367.069
|
102.52
|
83.046
|
263877
|
88.63
|
2002M07
|
25.74
|
1559.842
|
102.06
|
82.944
|
268028
|
88.23
|
2002M08
|
26.65
|
1378.477
|
101.46
|
83.046
|
268515
|
88.34
|
2002M09
|
28.4
|
602.2318
|
101.23
|
83.147
|
269684
|
87.49
|
2002M10
|
27.54
|
-1656.15
|
103.75
|
83.452
|
274902
|
87.49
|
2002M11
|
24.34
|
-2085.227
|
102.62
|
83.655
|
278166
|
87.89
|
2002M12
|
28.33
|
-1179.145
|
102.77
|
83.959
|
284144
|
90.00
|
2003M01
|
31.18
|
914.064
|
101.95
|
84.67
|
300917
|
91.62
|
2003M02
|
32.77
|
-2032.52
|
100.29
|
86.497
|
298314
|
91.97
|
2003M03
|
30.61
|
-505.7261
|
99.654
|
85.99
|
300781
|
90.79
|
2003M04
|
25
|
-143.7664
|
97.817
|
85.99
|
305179
|
91.78
|
2003M05
|
25.86
|
-227.85
|
96.624
|
85.888
|
313123
|
93.79
|
2003M06
|
27.65
|
-567.5845
|
98.384
|
85.685
|
324526
|
93.10
|
2003M07
|
28.35
|
-1571.076
|
98.544
|
85.381
|
326319
|
93.03
|
2003M08
|
29.89
|
-143.6254
|
97.824
|
85.381
|
329945
|
92.61
|
2003M09
|
27.11
|
-611.6227
|
97.551
|
85.381
|
341303
|
95.87
|
2003M10
|
29.61
|
-629.056
|
96.861
|
85.279
|
350633
|
96.35
|
2003M11
|
28.75
|
188.8911
|
97.252
|
85.787
|
358800
|
97.03
|
2003M12
|
29.81
|
36.13985
|
98.58
|
86.497
|
378060
|
99.08
|
2004M01
|
31.28
|
-1700.89
|
98.773
|
87.411
|
392868
|
100.55
|
2004M02
|
30.86
|
-1314.478
|
98.844
|
90.051
|
392122
|
100.81
|
2004M03
|
33.63
|
-763.2934
|
98.697
|
90.761
|
404093
|
100.85
|
2004M04
|
33.59
|
-425.5917
|
97.904
|
91.168
|
410770
|
97.67
|
2004M05
|
37.57
|
134.3752
|
100.47
|
91.98
|
417129
|
98.29
|
2004M06
|
35.18
|
367.3593
|
99.091
|
92.792
|
420262
|
97.94
|
2004M07
|
38.22
|
489.7116
|
98.791
|
93.198
|
427403
|
97.65
|
2004M08
|
42.74
|
-1056.92
|
99.092
|
93.807
|
438362
|
97.93
|
2004M09
|
43.2
|
-2675.191
|
100.77
|
94.01
|
445393
|
98.16
|
2004M10
|
49.78
|
-1750.848
|
101.97
|
94.01
|
456962
|
100.58
|
2004M11
|
43.11
|
-1210.92
|
101.25
|
94.213
|
472446
|
103.69
|
2004M12
|
39.6
|
-2202.418
|
100.45
|
94.822
|
495446
|
104.64
|
2005M01
|
44.51
|
-3916.648
|
101.02
|
95.838
|
503131
|
103.81
|
2005M02
|
45.48
|
-5937.396
|
98.441
|
98.274
|
510206
|
105.41
|
2005M03
|
53.1
|
-1213.419
|
98.109
|
98.376
|
517024
|
102.76
|
2005M04
|
51.88
|
-537.1275
|
96.32
|
98.985
|
526884
|
102.94
|
2005M05
|
48.65
|
-393.1238
|
97.802
|
99.391
|
533128
|
100.72
|
2005M06
|
54.35
|
410.9948
|
100
|
99.797
|
544601
|
100.00
|
2005M07
|
57.52
|
-202.7661
|
101.69
|
100.2
|
548352
|
99.67
|
2005M08
|
63.98
|
498.6959
|
99.523
|
100.61
|
566701
|
99.23
|
2005M09
|
62.91
|
192.2848
|
103.28
|
101.42
|
577793
|
99.25
|
2005M10
|
58.54
|
-309.8994
|
105.67
|
101.83
|
588309
|
98.99
|
2005M11
|
55.24
|
551.0419
|
106.82
|
102.23
|
604792
|
98.60
|
2005M12
|
56.86
|
4348.01
|
106.03
|
103.05
|
648574
|
98.95
|
2006M01
|
62.99
|
2350.701
|
105.98
|
104.26
|
677389
|
101.69
|
2006M02
|
60.21
|
-2750.521
|
105.15
|
106.5
|
675823
|
101.01
|
2006M03
|
62.06
|
2859.388
|
102.55
|
105.99
|
699988
|
100.50
|
2006M04
|
70.26
|
2940.495
|
106.1
|
106.19
|
704994
|
103.14
|
2006M05
|
69.78
|
-4186.156
|
107.05
|
106.8
|
714823
|
104.56
|
2006M06
|
68.56
|
1802.457
|
107.81
|
107.21
|
727165
|
102.83
|
2006M07
|
73.67
|
1099.387
|
106.87
|
107.61
|
735205
|
104.21
|
2006M08
|
73.23
|
-7518.325
|
108.39
|
108.02
|
751782
|
104.68
|
2006M09
|
61.96
|
3748.352
|
109.77
|
108.32
|
753011
|
104.21
|
2006M10
|
57.81
|
-11249.49
|
109.44
|
108.63
|
767107
|
104.65
|
2006M11
|
58.76
|
1182.2
|
109.96
|
109.24
|
789930
|
106.72
|
2006M12
|
62.47
|
6566.58
|
109.85
|
109.85
|
841010
|
107.04
|
2007M01
|
53.68
|
4741.785
|
109.83
|
110.96
|
872550
|
106.68
|
2007M02
|
57.56
|
-9583.099
|
109.56
|
113.4
|
905455
|
107.12
|
2007M03
|
62.05
|
-328.02
|
109.47
|
113.1
|
949180
|
107.52
|
2007M04
|
67.49
|
1353.787
|
107.52
|
113.71
|
979673
|
107.70
|
2007M05
|
67.21
|
1451.889
|
108.5
|
114.52
|
1005314
|
107.93
|
2007M06
|
71.05
|
3051.244
|
107.37
|
115.53
|
1029562
|
107.61
|
2007M07
|
76.93
|
2729.396
|
106.61
|
116.65
|
1056450
|
109.24
|
2007M08
|
70.76
|
-5045.931
|
108.9
|
117.26
|
1076897
|
109.46
|
2007M09
|
77.17
|
1024.323
|
108.67
|
117.87
|
1110983
|
110.09
|
2007M10
|
82.34
|
686.2587
|
108.93
|
118.78
|
1154500
|
112.92
|
2007M11
|
92.41
|
1559.968
|
110.93
|
120.2
|
1183136
|
113.45
|
2007M12
|
90.93
|
5831.538
|
112.3
|
123.65
|
1253997
|
112.40
|
2008M01
|
92.18
|
2235.044
|
112.46
|
126.6
|
1293054
|
115.95
|
2008M02
|
94.99
|
-3242.484
|
111.2
|
131.17
|
1280506
|
117.08
|
2008M03
|
103.64
|
8077.965
|
108.89
|
135.03
|
1300249
|
116.70
|
2008M04
|
109.07
|
2484.43
|
109.85
|
138.07
|
1278399
|
115.55
|
2008M05
|
122.8
|
1884.886
|
111.67
|
143.45
|
1298039
|
115.29
|
2008M06
|
132.32
|
2787.29
|
112.63
|
146.5
|
1295492
|
118.78
|
2008M07
|
132.72
|
2177.582
|
115.88
|
148.12
|
1300593
|
118.37
|
2008M08
|
113.24
|
1271.683
|
114.23
|
150.46
|
1302892
|
112.99
|
2008M09
|
97.23
|
-742.503
|
114.91
|
150.76
|
1347515
|
112.03
|
2008M10
|
71.58
|
-1053.084
|
117.48
|
150.46
|
1367228
|
107.03
|
2008M11
|
52.45
|
-4899.159
|
115.89
|
149.34
|
1394620
|
106.11
|
2008M12
|
39.95
|
-604.8226
|
112.21
|
148.32
|
1513540
|
115.57
|
2009M01
|
43.44
|
-6340.128
|
110.61
|
151.14
|
1561470
|
111.49
|
2009M02
|
43.32
|
689.8731
|
106.81
|
151.47
|
1589600
|
110.90
|
2009M03
|
46.54
|
-4843.819
|
105.3
|
151.24
|
1645310
|
112.16
|
2009M04
|
50.18
|
-3134.212
|
99.359
|
150.78
|
1693560
|
108.24
|
2009M05
|
57.3
|
-2580.275
|
100.94
|
151.45
|
1737820
|
111.51
|
2009M06
|
68.61
|
-1308.953
|
101.92
|
152.27
|
1775950
|
112.35
|
2009M07
|
64.44
|
-1165.17
|
109.1
|
153.07
|
1800850
|
114.16
|
2009M08
|
72.51
|
265.1577
|
109.35
|
153.43
|
1806200
|
114.52
|
2009M09
|
67.65
|
1962.124
|
107.98
|
154.39
|
1842320
|
117.90
|
2009M10
|
72.77
|
1887.822
|
108.22
|
154.95
|
1866070
|
117.86
|
2009M11
|
76.66
|
1975.328
|
108.49
|
155.81
|
1884090
|
127.11
|
2009M12
|
74.46
|
3056.703
|
106.37
|
157.96
|
1910590
|
123.42
|
2010M01
|
76.17
|
-751.0043
|
105.5
|
160.11
|
1912150
|
123.41
|
2010M02
|
73.75
|
-13164.77
|
103.95
|
163.25
|
1948240
|
126.99
|
2010M03
|
78.83
|
-4960.569
|
100.04
|
164.47
|
1982390
|
127.53
|
2010M04
|
84.82
|
-2543.266
|
106.28
|
164.7
|
2022800
|
127.13
|
2010M05
|
75.95
|
-1025.694
|
108.13
|
165.15
|
2076120
|
126.22
|
2010M06
|
74.76
|
-171.6637
|
109.68
|
165.51
|
2166590
|
125.80
|
2010M07
|
75.58
|
1641.021
|
108.66
|
165.6
|
2174350
|
126.75
|
2010M08
|
77.04
|
2071.558
|
109.23
|
165.99
|
2257350
|
132.42
|
2010M09
|
77.84
|
2758.134
|
113.6
|
168.16
|
2325020
|
137.12
|
2010M10
|
82.67
|
3536.916
|
110.2
|
169.93
|
2339570
|
134.38
|
2010M11
|
85.28
|
2227.053
|
111.75
|
173.09
|
2358710
|
130.91
|
2010M12
|
91.45
|
5595.666
|
114.23
|
176.53
|
2478310
|
134.52
|
2011M01
|
96.52
|
3514.858
|
113.2
|
179.59
|
2484090
|
135.12
|
2011M02
|
103.72
|
-352.3101
|
114.35
|
183.35
|
2512950
|
149.02
|
2011M03
|
114.64
|
-2923.806
|
113.32
|
187.32
|
2495420
|
150.22
|
2011M04
|
123.26
|
-265.5925
|
114.83
|
193.54
|
2484010
|
152.75
|
2011M05
|
114.99
|
1584.388
|
113.68
|
197.82
|
2485330
|
152.70
|
2011M06
|
113.83
|
2321.196
|
112.59
|
199.97
|
2544740
|
154.46
|
2011M07
|
116.97
|
1546.184
|
112.82
|
202.31
|
2580560
|
157.34
|
2011M08
|
110.22
|
-562.7758
|
116.43
|
204.19
|
2721520
|
155.75
|
2011M09
|
112.83
|
4590.945
|
114.06
|
205.87
|
2673760
|
147.22
|
2011M10
|
109.55
|
708.4834
|
112.96
|
206.61
|
2635060
|
151.91
|
2011M11
|
110.77
|
1365.629
|
111.97
|
207.42
|
2652390
|
148.87
|
2011M12
|
107.87
|
4610.336
|
113.1
|
208.51
|
2774280
|
147.80
|
2012M01
|
110.69
|
-4875.515
|
112.58
|
210.6
|
2777060
|
148.82
|
2012M02
|
119.33
|
8603.306
|
115.43
|
213.48
|
2774120
|
150.34
|
2012M03
|
125.45
|
-5076.612
|
113.75
|
213.82
|
2827350
|
148.00
|
2012M04
|
119.75
|
-1482.928
|
113.65
|
213.94
|
2867600
|
148.15
|
2012M05
|
110.34
|
39.30822
|
110.94
|
214.32
|
2921580
|
144.46
|
2012M06
|
95.16
|
1777.717
|
111.47
|
213.76
|
2987090
|
145.49
|
2012M07
|
102.62
|
-432.3828
|
110.51
|
213.14
|
3023010
|
146.39
|
2012M08
|
113.36
|
-3877.339
|
112.97
|
214.48
|
3083581
|
146.96
|
2012M09
|
112.86
|
5736.368
|
109.92
|
219.2
|
3149681
|
149.42
|
Trong đó số liệu chi tiết để tính toán các chuỗi Output Gap, IMP, NEER sẽ được nhóm tác giả cung cấp chi tiết nếu có yêu cầu.
Chia sẻ với bạn bè của bạn: |
