Vietnam national university of economics and business
The situation of Vietnam in that period
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Khung-CTDT-TCNH-CLC, Ruot thang 4 (2)-99-102
2.6. The situation of Vietnam in that period2.6.1. Negative impactHow did the financial crisis in the US have a direct impact on Vietnam? That depends on the economic relationship between the two countries. In terms of investment, then, the US ranked 6th among countries investing in Vietnam. The US is also a big investor, if you include the investment value through 3rd countries, the US has been the number 1 investor in Vietnam for many years. Projects from the US to Vietnam are mostly in the early stages and focus a lot on long-term infrastructure. On the contrary, in the short term, we export more to the US. In the field of trade, the US is currently Vietnam's largest export market, accounting for about 23-25%. The rest, the relationship between the two financial and banking systems is almost negligible. Therefore, Vietnam is hardly directly affected by the US financial crisis. In terms of indirect effects, this is also Vietnam's advantage, showing that Vietnam's economy is a "safe" economy. vase” is not broken by the storm. Gross domestic product (GDP): The growth rate of gross domestic product in 2008 (6.18%) is lower than the growth rate of 8.48% in 2007 and the adjusted target is to increase 7.0%. Economic growth is forecasted in 2009, GDP will grow slower than in 2008 due to the strong impact and no clear sign of improvement of the global economic recession. Consumer price index: In 2008, inflation in Vietnam increased sharply compared to 2007. That caused consumer prices in 2008 to increase in general and to have complicated and unusual movements compared with consumer price trends previous years. Total retail sales of consumer goods and services: Trade and service activities in 2008 were less active compared to 2007 due to high prices of goods and services, leading to a significant decrease in the purchasing power of the population. In other words, products are produced and consumed slowly. Total retail sales of consumer goods and services at real prices in 2008 increased by 31% compared to 2007 (if excluding price increases, the increase was only 6.5%, while in 2007 it increased by 31%). 14.4% compared to 2006). Tourism Vietnam's tourism industry will not be affected much because tourists entering Vietnam are very diverse, not concentrated in the high-end segment. Some countries with a decrease in the number of visitors to our country are: Korea 449.2 thousand arrivals, down 5.5%; Japan 393 thousand arrivals, down 6.1%; Taiwan 303.5 thousand arrivals, down 4.9%. For Real Estate Only FDI in the field of office buildings, high-end resorts may be affected, but the decline in this investment is not a cause for concern. Money market The impact of the currency crisis on Vietnam is unlikely to be significant. This is because American investors (indirectly, directly) have entered Vietnam, so when the economy is shaken, there is less capital in the home country and therefore they may reconsider withdrawing capital to solve this problem. domestic problem. And if we still do business effectively, they still have to grow: USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations: In 2008, the exchange rate band widened 3 times in a row, 2 times it was directly increased at the average interbank exchange rate, unprecedented adjustments in history. Fluctuation in deposit and lending interest rates: Starting from May 2008, many banks simultaneously pushed deposit mobilization levels to over 19%/year, in some cases up to 20%/year in some cases. From the end of July 2008, interest rates on the market began to decrease. VND deposit interest rate decreased from 19%/year to around 8%/year; maximum lending rate from 21%/year to 12.75%/year (from January 29, 2009, lending interest rate in VND: 10.5%/year). Banks' bad debts tend to increase: In 2007, most of the state-owned banks were only about 3%, common shares were less than 2%. In 2008, a number of large banks officially announced the actual or target bad debt ratio from 5% to more than 6%. Activities of banks: the profit of many commercial banks in 2008 did not reach the set target, even the adjusted target. Tight monetary policy and liquidity difficulties in the first half of 2008 caused many banks to limit credit. For the banking industry The activities of most commercial banks in Vietnam are mainly consumer loans, corporate loans with high risk dispersion and little investment linkages with banks. major investment of the US as well as other countries in the world. Therefore, when the 2008 US financial crisis took place, the Vietnamese banking industry was not significantly affected. The influence, if any, is only due to the temporary psychological impact of investors, for example, there may be the possibility that some groups of investors will "discharge" shares of the banking industry in order to aggravate the situation. situation to pull down the bank stock price. Mainly indirect effects due to capital flows through the stock market or investment system and through a number of linked banks. Investment activities At that time, the US was one of the leading investors in Vietnam. Experts all assume that the 2008 US financial crisis will only have small and indirect impacts on investment capital flows into Vietnam. The small effect is explained by experts for several reasons. There is a reason that Vietnam's currency is not convertible. There is a reason that the amount of money invested by Vietnam in the US financial market is not significant. There is a reason that Vietnam's macroeconomic indicators in 2008 are changing positively, from inflation, trade deficit, foreign direct investment, growth in agriculture, industry, and budget revenue. ... Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Vietnam are high and often long-term, so they are not affected much by the currency crisis in the US, but indirect investment (FPI) can be affected to some extent. The main investors in Vietnam are Japan, Korea, Taiwan... Even American manufacturing companies, if they have plans to invest in Vietnam, will not postpone their plans because of this crisis. there. The experience of the 1990s showed that the Japanese economic downturn had little effect on their FDI in China and Vietnam. Intel's experience in Vietnam also shows that this company is slow to implement its investment plan in our country mainly because it cannot secure the necessary high-qualified human resources... Attracting foreign direct investment capital this year. 2008 continued to achieve high results. total registered capital of 64.1 billion USD, nearly 3 times higher than 2007. Realized foreign direct investment capital in 2008 reached 11.5 billion USD, an increase of 43.2% compared to 2007. But, the ratio of real capital Compared to the registered capital in 2008 decreased compared to 2007. The ratio of realized capital compared with the registered capital in 2008 was only 17.9%, while the ratio of realized capital compared with the registered capital of FDI in 2007 reached only 17.9%. 37.6%. In the context of the global economic-financial crisis, it will make it difficult to attract registered and realized FDI capital in the coming time when countries withdraw capital to remove difficulties for the public sector. mother company. Direct and indirect investment has declined globally, and Vietnam is no exception: in the first three months of 2009 Vietnam received only $2.1 billion in foreign investment, down 70%. compared with the same period in 2008, while the committed FDI capital reached 6 billion USD, equivalent to 60% of the capital in the same period of 2008. In fact, the registered FDI capital decreased right from January, reaching only 185 million USD. In February, the total capital increased sharply because there were 3 large licensed projects in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, and one project increased capital from 300 million USD to 4.1 billion USD. Other projects raised very little capital, and in 3 months, only 34 times of projects applied for an increase. For the Stock Market: The types of securities that are currently problematic of the US securities and insurance companies have not been sold in Vietnam. The impact, if any, is only due to the temporary psychological impact of investors. The operation of the stock market is still regulated by internal factors of our economy. However, the crisis in foreign markets may make investment capital in Vietnam's stock market not abundant. The source of money of investment organizations in Vietnam is also money from parent companies abroad. If companies in foreign countries face difficulties, their subsidiaries in Vietnam must also be cautious in investing. This limits the supply of the market, making it difficult for the stock market to rise so quickly as before. The indexes fell sharply: At the end of 2008, the VN-Index and HNX-Index both decreased by nearly 70% compared to the beginning of the year. For the export sector Vietnam is most affected by the US recession, probably in the export sector. Currently, the US accounts for more than 20% of Vietnam's total export turnover. But at the same time, most of our products exported to the US are garments, footwear and seafood, so in the immediate future, only these products will face difficulties. The situation is that in 2008, exports only reached about 64 billion dollars. exports decreased not only in the number of orders but also in the selling price of exported goods. Many domestic entrepreneurs have faced difficulties due to the falling commodity market and lack of investment capital. For export activities of minerals and fuels Before the impact of the global financial crisis, crude oil production only increased slightly in the first few years of the 2001-2006 period, then gradually decreased due to the exhaustion during exploration and purchase of oil fields. New developments in other countries have not made much progress. When the US economy's crisis caused a sharp drop in crude oil prices, it affected the revenue from oil in Vietnam. Although it is not affected by the market, it is affected by the price. Export turnover in 2008 was 5 billion USD, down 40.1% or 3.35 billion USD, of which decreased due to price decrease of 4.83 billion USD and increased by 1.48 billion USD in volume. For agricultural, forestry and fishery export activities Before the crisis, Vietnam's exports were subject to increasingly fierce competition by some countries' exports of the same type, and the export turnover of a number of Vietnam's agro-forestry-fishery products had declined. These effects began to manifest from September 2008, exports slowed down, the value decreased compared to the previous months, the total turnover was US$1.45 billion, down 11% compared to August 2008. For the group of processed industrial goods In 2008, export activities were irregular in the first months of the year when the export price was favorable, export turnover reached a high level in 2 July and 8 to September, and exports decreased sharply and continued to decline in the last months of the year. In 2008, Vietnam exported about 64.8 billion USD, of which about 32.1% of export value was heavy industrial goods and minerals, 45.2% was light industrial goods and handicrafts, 23, 5% are agricultural, forestry and fishery products. => Status of economic growth The first quarter of 2008 with GDP growth target of 9% but reduced to 6.5%; The price range of commodities fluctuate sharply, bank interest rates kept changing, oil prices fell to the lowest level in the past 3 years, etc. our country's economic growth in 2008 slowed down to 6 .2% compared to 8.5% in 2007. This is the lowest growth rate since 2000; moreover, the growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 was only 5.7% compared to 6.5% in the first three quarters of 2008. In particular, while the growth of the industry-construction sector decreased significantly (6, 1% compared to 10.2% in 2007), the agro-forestry-fishery sector had a higher growth rate than in 2007 (4.1% compared to 3.8%), showing great significance. of this region in the development of the country as well as in solving social problems in difficult situations. tải về 195.42 Kb. Chia sẻ với bạn bè của bạn:
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