NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY
ADVANCED EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS
Topic : Current
situation of foreign exchange
marke in Vietnam and management measures
Ha Tu Linh
Dang Thi Khanh An
Nguyen Thi Thu Ha
Tran Thi Thu Hang
Bui Viet Anh
TABLE OF CONTENT
CHAPTER 1: Current situation of foreign exchange market in
Vietnam’s foreign exchange market in 2014
creates opportunities for enterprises to expand their export partners, reduces their
dependence on foreign partners.
In addition, the exchange rate adjustment will not pose significant risks to
inflation. Because in that time, domestic demands are still weak, Increase the
exchange rate led to higher input prices, but companies could not easily raise
output prices. In addition, with the current supply and demand situation of the
foreign exchange market, the SBV ( State Bank of Vietnam) will be able to
maintain the stability of the VND in the long run.
For the stock market, this adjustment of the exchange rate has the same reaction as
the adjustment of the interbank exchange rate in 2013. The stock market is
negatively impacted in the short term but then rebounded rapidly. On 27/6/2013,
the SBV increased the average interbank exchange rate 1%, one day later the VN
Index fell 3.7 points, but quickly recovered and increased.
The foreign exchange market is stable in 2014 when the average exchange rate of
23 commercial banks was 21.251 VND / USD, increased 1.04% over the same
period in 2013. Free exchange rates on June 30, 2014 is 21.305 VND / USD,
increased 0.1% over the same period in 2013.
Although the nominal exchange rate has been adjusted by 1%, however, due to the
inflation gap between the US and Vietnam, the VND is still 6.48% higher than the
The foreign exchange market is basically stable, due to the support of the
reserves to over 35 billion USD- the highest level so far.
Vietnam’s foreign exchange market in 2015
Overall, the foreign exchange market of Vietnam was quite exciting and
complicated in 2015. It can be seen thatthe foreign exchange market for the
first half of the year had been supported in a stable manner by long-term
Consistent direction of the SBV
The overall balance of payments surplus - estimated to reach $ 2-3 billion in
the first 6 months of the year
Inflation remained low, CPI in June rose by only 0.6% against the end of 2014.
However, from the beginning of the year, the pressure from the international
currency market and the serious trade deficit forced the SBV to increase the
average interbank exchange rate by 1%.After that market sentiment stabilized
and exchange rates fell shortly, but this situation did not last long.Continued to
be influenced by the strength of the dollar, the exchange rate went to the
ceiling in several days before the SBV raised the second rate to 1% in May and
implement the commitment to adjust no more than 2% to the exchange rate as
well as ready to intervene to stabilize the market. The market liquidity was
stable until August, then the market was shaken again by the Chinese central
bank's CNY devaluation in response to the growing interest rate of Fed. In
Vietnam’s foreign exchange market in 2015
Foreign markets in the first six months of 2016
After experiencing fluctuations in 2015, causing the state to sell a
considerable amount of foreign currency to intervene in the market, in early
2016, the foreign exchange market of Vietnam is quite stable.
On February 2, 1616, the State Bank reverted to the dollar with the purchase
price of 22,300 VND and the ceiling price of 22,511 VND. This move shows
that banks have started buying foreign currencies to reserve. After the
announcement of the above information, market liquidity became plentiful,
market activity became more active.
The central bank's daily central rate announcement has contributed to
speculative sentiment among investors. At the same time, this also helps to
prevent the ongoing dollarization in the Vietnamese economy.
At the end of May this year, the exchange rates in many commercial banks
have shown signs of warming due to the rumors of a possible Fed rate
increase in June 2016 and impact From the deceleration of the Chinese
economy, the yuan has declined significantly. In addition, in the Vietnamese
market, the purchase of $ 7 billion in reserves by the State Bank also
contributes to the rise of the dollar.
The interbank interest rates in May 2016 were mixed with the previous
month, tending to fall further and stay low for several consecutive weeks due
to the following reasons: Faster than the VND credit, the SBV pumped more
than 72 trillion VND via foreign exchange channels.
However, in June, the exchange rate returned to a stable situation as the bank
temporarily stopped pumping money into the market, trade balance was
• Other foreign currency
In the first quarter of 2016, the dollar fluctuated in a narrow range in
February and fluctuated sharply in March. The reason is because the dollar
devalued before the decision to delay the Fed interest rate increase while the
loosening policy. The ECB's currency does not cause the euro to fall. Euros
in the quarter increased 4.6% against the dollar and closed at 1.1377 EUR /
USD. - The dollar rose slightly at the beginning of the quarter versus the
Japanese Yen while it fell sharply at the end of the quarter. The weakness of
the US economy and the prospect of a damp world economy prompted
investors to invest in the Japanese Yen as a hedge. Japanese yen in the
quarter rose 6.7% against the dollar and closed at 112,549 JPY / USD.
Situation of market volatility in the last 6 months of 2016
Looking back at the foreign exchange market over the past time, after a long
period of relatively stable and less volatile, since mid-August, the central
rate has been continuously adjusted up to October 26, Listed at 22,030
VND / USD, an increase of about 0.6% compared to the beginning of the
However, the exchange rates of commercial banks and the informal market
continue to maintain and maintain stability. The rate at many commercial
banks is currently around 22,330 - 22,350 VND / USD.
In particular, the CDS index tends to fall slightly and NDF term rates have
not changed much compared to the previous month, suggesting that the
exchange rate expectations are quite stable. The change in CDs is due to:
• Some of the major currencies in the basket depreciate against the dollar,
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